49ers Seahawks Odds
Posted by Ryan James on
In Thursday’s Thanksgiving nightcap the San Francisco 49ers (7-4, 6-5 ATS) will host the Seattle Seahawks (7-4, 5-6 ATS) in a huge NFC West showdown. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 EST at Levi’s Stadium and will be televised nationally on NBC. Oddsmakers currently have the 49ers listed as a 1-point home favorite with the total set at 40.5 points.
The Seahawks come into this game off an impressive 19-3 home win over the Cardinals, giving them 3 wins in their last 4 games. San Francisco also comes in playing some of their best football. The 49ers held on for a 17-13 home win over the Redskins for their 3rd straight victory.
Seattle’s win over Arizona has both of these teams just 2 games back for the division lead, with each still having a game against the Cardinals left on the schedule. Not only is the game big in terms of the NFC West, but both of these teams are currently tied for the final Wild Card spot with Detroit.
These two teams will face off again in Seattle in Week 15. To no surprise, the home team has dominated this series, going 9-1 over the last 10 games.
Early Lean on 49ers -1
I think we are seeing the books undervalue the 49ers due to their lackluster win against the Redskins, which they came no where close to covering the 9-point spread and overvaluing the Seahawks for their lopsided win and cover at home against the Cardinals. Just based on the history of this series, it’s pretty clear that San Francisco is showing some great value at basically a pick’em at home.
The Seahawks haven’t beat the 49ers on the road since 2008 and it’s well known that they aren’t as dominant away from home. Seattle is 2-3 on the road this season, with their two wins coming in less than impressive fashion against a couple of bad teams in Washington (27-17) and Carolina (13-9).
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that San Francisco has allowed a mere 23 combined points in the two games since Aldon Smith returned to the field. Smith has 2 sacks and 6 quarterback hits in two games and having him to contain Russell Wilson is huge. Keep in mind that the 49ers held Wilson to a mere 35 rushing yards in their 3 games against the Seahawks last year.
San Francisco’s less than impressive showing against the Redskins last week shouldn’t come as a big surprise given that they knew they had a short amount of time to prepare for this matchup. A game they arguably have to win, as they are 1-2 in the division and don’t want to be sitting at 1-3 going into Seattle, where they haven’t won since 2011. In fact, them not covering the spread is a good thing. The 49ers are 26-9-3 ATS in their last 38 games following an ATS loss.
The other important thing to remember is that the 49ers are the ones that have serious revenge on their minds, as it was the Seahawks who kept them out of the Super Bowl last year. Seattle clearly is going to be up for this game, but I could see them struggling to match the intensity of San Francisco. Unlike the 49ers who played a bad team last week, Seattle laid everything on the line against the Cardinals at home. It’s also a lot harder on the road team in these Thursday game with short rest.
The other big key here is that I think we are just now seeing the 49ers start to play their best football and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that San Francisco has allowed a mere 23 combined points in the two games since Aldon Smith returned to the field. Smith has 2 sacks and 6 quarterback hits in two games and having him to contain Russell Wilson is huge. Keep in mind that the 49ers held Wilson to a mere 35 rushing yards in their 3 games against the Seahawks last year.