The Seattle Seahawks (9-4, 7-6 ATS) will host the San Francisco 49ers (7-6, 6-7 ATS) in a NFC West rematch from Week 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 ESt at CenturyLink Field and will be televised locally on FOX. Oddsmakers currently have the Seahawks listed as a 9.5-point home favorite with the total set at 38 points.
While Seattle comes in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall after last week’s impressive 24-14 road win over the Eagles, the 49ers are in danger of missing the playoffs. San Francisco followed up their 3-19 home loss to the Seahawks with a shocking 13-24 defeat at Oakland this past Sunday as a 8.5-point favorite. San Francisco is now 2 games back of 3 teams for one of the two Wild Card spots in the NFC with just 3 games to play.
Early Lean on 49ers +9.5
I believe San Francisco’s loss to the Raiders combined with the Seahawks big win at Philadelphia, has forced oddsmakers to inflate this line knowing that the public is going to be all over Seattle. In turn it’s created some great value here with the 49ers. Keep in mind that since Jim Harbaugh took over as the head coach in San Francisco, the most the Seahawks had been favored in any game in the series was 4-points.
A couple other big reasons why we see such a big spread here is that Seattle just won in San Francisco by 16-points and most will just assume that because they are so good at home they will cover this double-digit spread. The Seahawks have also covered the spread in each of the last 6 games in the series. When it comes down to the public wants nothing to do with this 49ers team.
I’ll agree that this is not the same caliber a 49ers team as the ones that went to 3 straight NFC Championship Games, but I look for them to come out an lay it all on the line in this one. Not only will San Francisco be out for revenge, but they simply can’t afford to lose given their positioning in the standings.
San Francisco is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games after the first month of the season, 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games off an upset loss as a road favorite and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games when they come in having lost 2 out of their last 3 games. Adding to this is a big time system.
It’s also worth noting that while the 49ers are going to come out extremely motivated, I could see Seattle not taking this game quite as seriously as they should after the way they dominated them in the first meeting. The Seahawks could also find themselves looking ahead to next week’s huge showdown at Arizona, which could end up being for both a division title and a first round bye in the playoffs.
One of the big reasons that I like the 49ers here is that defensively this one of the better teams in the NFL and when you are strong on this side of the ball it’s hard to lose by double-digits. San Francisco is 4th in the league against the pass (211.2 ypg) and 7th against the run (97.2 ypg). In that first meeting they were killed with big plays and I look for them to be better prepared this time around.
San Francisco is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games after the first month of the season, 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games off an upset loss as a road favorite and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games when they come in having lost 2 out of their last 3 games. Adding to this is a big time system. Underdogs off an upset loss as a road favorite who have won between 51% to 60% of their games are 25-6 (81%) ATS in the second half of the season since 1983.
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