Alabama Tennessee Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd
This Saturday the No. 1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0) will host the Tennessee Volunteers (4-3) inside SEC play. Alabama remained perfect with a dominant 52-0 victory at home over Arkansas, while the Volunteers pulled off a huge upset over No. 11 South Carolina 23-21. Last year the Crimson Tide cruised past Tennessee 44-13 on the road as a 19.5-point favorite, giving them six straight wins in the series. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 EST at Bryant-Denny Stadium and will be televised nationally on CBS. Oddsmakers currently have Alabama listed as a 28-point home favorite.
Why Tennessee Will Cover:
The Volunteers have really came on strong following back-to-back blowout losses on the road to Oregon and Florida. Tennessee got things headed in the right direction with a 31-24 win at home over South Alabama. They nearly upset Georgia the next time out, losing 31-34 in overtime. The Volunteers got their first signature win of the season last week against South Carolina, who was fresh off a 52-7 win at Arkansas.
Tennessee’s outright win as a 7.5-point underdog against the Gamecocks was another case of oddsmakers undervaluing this team in conference play. The Volunteers are now 3-0 ATS inside the SEC. Normally this would be a sign to fade a team, but with the way the public loves to pound Alabama no matter what the spread is, you have to believe the value is with Tennessee getting four touchdowns. Adding to this is the fact that the Crimson Tide have covered two straight, yet are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a game where they covered the spread.
One of the keys to this game that can’t be overlooked is the fact that the Crimson Tide could find themselves looking ahead to next week’s huge showdown against LSU. Even though the Tigers aren’t an immediate threat with two conference losses, Alabama knows their perfect record will likely be put to the test.
Another thing to keep in mind is that while Tennessee didn’t cover the spread last year against the Crimson Tide at home, they have a strong history of beating the number when these two teams face off in Tuscaloosa. The Volunteers are 8-2 ATS in their 10 trips to Bryant-Denny Stadium.
The Volunteers are 8-2 ATS in their 10 trips to Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Why Alabama Will Cover:
Much like Tennessee, the Crimson Tide appear to come into this matchup having hit their stride. Since that close call at Texas A&M back on Nov. 14 where they won by a final of 49-42, Alabama has allowed a total of just 16 points in their last five games combined. During this stretch the Crimson Tide are outscoring their opponents by an average score of 40.2 to 2.6.
The Volunteers have been impressive of late with their near win over Georgia and upset of South Carolina, but both of those games came at home, where they are 4-1 on the season and 54-21 dating back to 2003. Tennessee lost their only two road games this season, falling 14-59 at Oregon and 17-31 at Florida. The Ducks are one of the few teams in the country who have the overall talent comparable to the Crimson Tide. If they can beat the Volunteers by 45-points, Alabama can certainly win this one by more than 28-points.
There’s a solid system favoring the Crimson Tide to win and cover. Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points, who are undefeated on the season and off a win by 10 points or more against a conference rival are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. That’s not the only system favoring Alabama. We also see that home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points who are at least 7-0 on the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points who are at least 7-0 on the season are 36-9 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.
Something to keep in mind is that Tennessee has benefited from playing a couple of suspect defenses in Georgia and South Carolina. The Volunteers still come into this game with the 89th ranked offense in the country, averaging just 368 ypg. Their recent success offensively has also covered up a defense that has allowed 31-points or more in three of their last five games. Alabama should have their way on the offensive side of the ball at home. You have to like their chances of scoring at least 40 points, which means Tennessee would need to score at least two touchdowns to have any hopes of covering.
Early Lean – Alabama -28