Arizona State at Arizona Odds
Posted by Steve Janus - Google+
The No. 24 ranked Arizona Wildcats will host the Arizona State Sun Devils this Friday in big in-state rivalry matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:00 EST at Arizona Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Oddsmakers have listed Arizona as a 3-point home favorite with the total posted at 68.5 points.
Why Arizona State Will Cover
The Sun Devils were able to put an end to their four-game losing streak with an easy 46-7 home win over Washington State. With the victory Arizona State improved to 6-5 overall and 4-4 inside the Pac-12, which should have them headed to a bowl game in the first season under head coach Todd Graham.
While you would typically give the edge to the home team in a huge in-state rivalry, the road team has won three straight in this series. During that three game stretch the largest margin of victory is 4-points. When you combine those two factors you can see why the Sun Devils could be a strong play getting a field goal.
Both of these two teams come in with high-powered offenses. The Wildcats come in averaging 37.5 ppg behind an impressive 521.8 total yards of offense. The Sun Devils aren’t far behind at 36.0 ppg on 448.2 yards/game. Defensively it’s a different story. The edge has to go to Arizona State on that side of the ball. The Sun Devils have a stop unit that is only allowing 23.1 ppg and 335.3 total yards. Arizona has not been able to stop anybody from moving the chains this season. The Wildcats are surrendering 33.6 ppg and 488 total yards. The numbers certainly favor Arizona State in this one.
Why Arizona Will Cover
The Wildcats come into this game playing some of their best football this season. They have won four of their last five overall to improve to 7-4 overall and 4-4 inside the conference. Arizona does have a couple of ugly losses to Oregon and UCLA, but both of those games were played on the road. Arizona is 6-1 at home this season with two big time wins over then No. 18 Oklahoma State and then No. 9 USC. Their only home loss was a 35-38 defeat to then No. 18 Oregon State. The Wildcats have clearly saved their best football for the home fans and you have to like that they are only laying a field goal at Arizona Stadium.
The Sun Devils have not exactly played all that great on the road this season. They lost at Missouri 20-24 in a game where the Tigers were missing their starting quarterback. They managed to beat both Cal and Colorado away from home, but those two teams are a combined 3-14 inside the Pac-12. In their last two road games they lost at Oregon State 26-36 and at USC 17-38. Adding even more value to this is the fact that Arizona State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs a team with a winning record and just 16-33-3 ATS over their last 52 road games vs a team with a winning home record.
While the road team has dominated this series of late, so have the Wildcats. Arizona has won three of the last four meetings. The game they lost at home in 2010 was a 29-30 double-overtime defeat where they missed the extra point to force a third extra period. Hard to not like the home team laying only a field goal in such a huge rivalry like this.
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