This Saturday the No. 6 Texas A&M Aggies will take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in a SEC West showdown. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 EST at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas and will be televised nationally on CBS. Oddsmakers currently have the Aggies listed as a 8.5-point favorite over the Razorbacks.
Texas A&M has continued to impress after that shocking 52-28 road win over South Carolina in their opener. The Aggies have outscored the opposition 169-19 in their 3 non-conference games that followed to improve to 4-0 overall and 3-1 ATS.
Arkansas opened up with a 21-45 loss at Auburn, but have bounced back in a big way. The Razorbacks crushed Nicholls State 73-7, went on the road and destroyed Texas Tech 49-28 and this past weekend cruised to a 52-14 home win over Northern Illinois.
The Aggies won 45-33 at Arkansas last year as a 14-point favorite It was Texas A&M’s second straight win in the series and their first on the road against the Hogs since 1990.
Early Lean on Texas A&M -8.5
While Arkansas has looked impressive of late, I don’t think they are quite on the same level as Texas A&M and will find it difficult to keep pace with the Aggies high-powered offensive attack. The Razorbacks have simply over-powered their last 3 opponents with their running game, but that’s largely due to their massive offensive line having such a big advantage against inferior competition. Texas A&M is greatly improved on the defensive side of the ball and are more than capable of keeping Arkansas’ ground game in check.
The big key here is that offensively the Aggies should be able to have their way against a Razorbacks defense that allowed 593 yards of total offense in that loss to Auburn. This will almost certainly have Arkansas playing from behind and that’s not something this team is built to do. In order to play catchup, you have to be able to throw the football and the Razorbacks come in ranked 105th in the country, averaging just 160.0 ypg through the air.
Teams that are allowing 14-points or less per game on the season after scoring at least 21 points in 3 straight games are 86-43 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That’s a 67% system in favor of Texas A&M.
A prime example of this is their game against Auburn. After keeping it close early against the Tigers, Arkansas fell behind early in the 3rd quarter and couldn’t get back in the game. They managed just 72 yards of total offense in the final 2 quarters in which they were outscored 28-0. Keep in mind that Auburn starting quarterback Nick Marshall didn’t play the first half of that contest.
Teams that are allowing 14-points or less per game on the season after scoring at least 21 points in 3 straight games are 86-43 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That’s a 67% system in favor of Texas A&M. It’s also worth noting that Arkansas is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on at a neutral site.