Arkansas Texas A&M Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd
The Texas A&M Aggies come into this game ranked No. 10 in the country. The Aggies have a 3-1 record with their only loss of the season coming in week three against No. 1 ranked Alabama. In their three remaining games they dominated winning by three touchdowns or more in each of those games. This week they will be on the road against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Arkansas also comes into this game with a 3-1 record, picking up double-digit wins in their first three games of the season, but falling short last week to Rutgers by four points.
Kick-off takes place at 7:00 PM ET with television coverage provided by ESPN. Oddsmakers have not yet set a line on this game as we await the status of Brandon Allen.
Why Texas A&M Covers
The Texas A&M defense looks unstoppable, averaging 50.2 points per game, including a 42-point performance against the No. 1 team in the nation. The Aggies are completing 67.8% of their pass attempts, and averaging 391 yards per game. Texas A&M has also been very effective running the ball. They have averaged 211 yards per game on the ground, gaining 5.3 yards per carry. I expect most of the offensive production in this game to come through the air, since Arkansas’s has a solid defense against the run.
The Aggies are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
The Aggies defense is definitely a bit soft, but they can afford to be with the offense scoring so many points. They have done a decent job defending the pass, but will need to make a concentrated effort on improving the run defense against the Razorbacks this week. Arkansas did show us last week that the ground attack can be shut down, getting held to just 101 yards on 34 carries by Rutgers. Since Arkansas runs the ball over a 2:1 ratio compared to the pass, don’t be surprised to see the Aggies stack an extra player or two upfront in this game.
Why Arkansas Covers
The Razorbacks have put up a respectable 28.2 points per game on their path to a 3-1 start this season. They have a very run-heavy attack, averaging 48 carries per game, and just 20 pass attempts. The ground attack has put up 246 yards per game, gaining 5.1 yards per carry. They face a Texas A&M defense that has allowed an average of 5.9 yards per carry this season, so Arkansas should have another big game. If the Aggies stack a couple extra players up front, the Razorbacks are a team that can also score through the air. While they are completing just 58.2% of their pass attempts, they average 7.7 yards per catch. There yardage numbers are a bit low because they do not have to throw the ball very often.
The Arkansas Razorbacks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Arkansas’s defense has played great this season. They are holding opponents to 16.5 points per game. The run defense has been superb, allowing just 93 yards per game on an average of 31 carries. They can also defense well against the pass. The Razorbacks have held opposing quarterbacks to a 55.9% completion rate. They rarely give up big plays which has led to an average of just 5.8 yards per catch. This weeks game against Texas A&M will be the biggest test of the season, but through the first four weeks this defense definitely looks good enough to keep this game within three touchdowns.
I expect to see Texas A&M favored by three touchdowns this week. If the three touchdown line holds up I would have to lean towards Arkansas because of Texas A&M’s poor defense. Arkansas’s defense is tough, and I think this game will finish with the Aggies winning by two touchdowns.