Baltimore Ravens Predictions

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Last season the Baltimore Ravens did not have the most impressive overall record in the league, but they got hot when it counted.  In what was Ray Lewis’ final season as a professional football player, Baltimore finished the regular season losing four of their last five games.  However, they went on to pick up a home win against Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs, and pulled off road wins against both Denver and New England before facing the 49ers in the Super Bowl.  San Francisco was a favorite in that game, but the Raven’s offense proved to be too much to handle with the combination of Ray Rice and Joe Flacco.

Three of the Ravens six losses came by a field goal or less last year.  They were beat by the Philadelphia Eagles in week two with a 24-23 final score, and they lost at home in a 23-20 game against Pittsburgh.  In their road game against the Washington Redskins the stout Raven’s defense gave up a touchdown and two-point conversion with 0:29 left, and ended up losing to a 34 yard field goal from Kai Forbath.   Riding the Ravens was not a profitable move last year as they finished with a 6-9-1 ATS record.  With such a great defense you would think the under may have been the right move, but Baltimore finished with a 9-7 record in favor of the over last year.

Last Season
AFC North
Record
ATS Record
Home ATS
Road ATS
Over/Under
1st
10-6
6-9-1
3-5
3-4-1
9-7
Offense Rank
Defense Rank
Turnover Margin
Points For
Points Against
16th
17th
+9
24.9
21.5
2013 Roster Changes
Draft Picks
Matt Elam (S), Arthur Brown (ILB), Brandon Williams (NT), John Simond (OLB), Kyle Juszczyk (FB), Ricky Wagner (OT)
Additions
AQ Shipley (C), Chris Canty (DE), Marcus Spears (DE), Elvis Dumervil (DE), Rolando McClain (ILB) Cary Williams (CB), Michael Huff (S)
Losses
Vonta Leach (FB), Anquan Boldin (WR), Matt Birk (C), Bobbie Williams (G), Maake Kemoeatu (NT), Ray Lewis (ILB), Brendon Ayanbadejo (ILB), Ed Reed (S), Paul Kruger (DE/OLB), Bernard Pollard (S)
Key Numbers for 2013
Draft Grade
Preseason Power Ranking
Strength of Schedule
B
9th
4.52
5th
Head Coach John Harbaugh
*Records for regular season only.
Overall
ATS
Home
Home ATS
Road
Road ATS
54-26
42-36-2
33-7
21-18-1
21-19
21-18-1
Off of a Bye
Off of a Bye ATS
Off of a Loss
Off of a Loss ATS
5-0
5-0
19-6
12-12-1
Schedule
2013 Baltimore Ravens Schedule
Date Opponent
Spread (Est.)
Win Chance
9/5 @ Broncos
+7
0.25
9/15 Browns
-7.5
0.78
9/22 Texans
-3.5
0.64
9/29 @ Bills
-4
0.66
10/6 @ Dolphins
-1
0.51
10/13 Packers
-1
0.51
10/20 @ Steelers
+1.5
0.47
Week 8 BYE
11/3 @ Browns
-3.5
0.64
11/10 Bengals
-3
0.59
11/17 @ Bears
PICK
0.50
11/24 Jets
-6
0.71
11/28 Steelers
-2.5
0.55
12/8 Vikings
-3.5
0.64
12/16 @ Lions
PICK
0.50
12/22 Patriots
PICK
0.50
12/29 @ Bengals
+3
0.43
Estimated Wins: 8.88

The schedule for the Ravens is is a difficult one.  They rank 5th in the league for strength of schedule, yet they are favored or a PICK in 13 of their 16 games.  They open the season as underdogs against the Broncos on the road, and will also be playing from the underdog position in road games against the Steelers and Bengals.

Even though their strength of schedule is difficult on paper, it is hard not to like the defending Super Bowl Champs to repeat as AFC North winners.  They will probably split their division games against the Bengals and Steelers, but in their non-division matchups they have some key games at home.  In week three the Ravens will play host to the Houston Texas, and they will also be at home in their games against the Packers, Vikings and Patriots.  Those are all teams that made in appearance in the post season last year.

The schedule sets up nicely on the road in 2013.  They have what should be easy wins against the Bills, Dolphins, Bears and Lions.  With the exception of the home opener against the Broncos, there is not a game on the schedule that seems out of reach for this team.  I do have Baltimore losing their final game of the season against Cincinnati because they should be locked-in to the playoff spot while the Bengals may still be fighting to get in.

Odds
Regular Season Win Total
to Win the AFC
to Win Super Bowl XLVIII
8.5
9-1
22 to 1
Odds Courtesty of Bovada
Predictions

This should be another great year for the Ravens so it is not surprising to see them listed as one of the top favorites to win the Super Bowl.  Joe Flacco shouted “Show me the money!” and that is exactly what the Ravens ownership did.  Now that Flacco has secured a long term deal with Baltimore I think he can perform even better than he has in past seasons.  It will be hard to match last years 60% completion percentage and 3,800+ yards to go along with his 22:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but if there is any quarterback in the AFC that can do it, Joe Flacco is that man.

The Ravens defense lost a lot of key players with the retirement of Ray Lewis to go along with the loss of Ed Reed at Safety and Paul Kruger at linebacker.  Baltimore will also have to deal with the loss of Anquan Boldin on offense.  They did end up drafting a lot of quality defensive players, but I would have liked to seen them pick up a few more veterans through free agency before I can considered them legitimate Super Bowl contenders.  The AFC North is weak this year and the Ravens should have no problem walking away with the division.  The Bengals are the only team they should fear and they will be on the road against them in the final game of the season.  Regardless, I still have Baltimore picked to finish first and they should have no problem exceeding their 8.5 game win total.

Projections
AFC North Finish
Division Record
Overall Record
Win Total Prediction
1st
4-2
10-6
Over 8.5
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About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
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