Baylor vs Texas Tech Odds
This Saturday the Texas Tech Red Raiders will take on the Baylor Bears in Big 12 action. This in-state rivalry matchup will take place at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 EST and will be televised nationally on FOX. Oddsmakers have listed Baylor as a 2.5-point road favorite with the total posted at 78 points.
Why Baylor Will Cover
The Bears come into this game off a shocking 52-24 win over previously unbeaten and No. 1 ranked Kansas State, but they still have some work to do to get to a bowl game. At 5-5 overall, Baylor needs to win one of their final two games to become bowl eligible. The Bears host No. 21 Oklahoma State next week, so they would certainly like to take care of business against the Red Raiders.
The Red Raiders are simply not as good as the numbers would indicate, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Texas Tech comes into this game ranked 25th in the country in total defense, allowing an average of just 339.3 ypg. However, those numbers are extremely inflated due to their weak non-conference schedule. The Red Raiders are giving up 406.5 ypg over their eight conference games. Last week Oklahoma State torched Texas Tech’s defense for 59 points on 487 yards of total offense. Baylor comes into this game ranked 2nd in the nation in total offense with a ridiculous average of 565.6 ypg.
That offense is what really gives Baylor a great shot at winning this game. It’s no secret that the Bears aren’t all that strong defensively either, but they are use to playing games where they have to simply outscore their opponent. Last year the Bears defeated the Red Raiders 66-42 in game where Texas Tech just couldn’t keep up offensively.
Why Texas Tech Will Cover
Thanks in large part to the Red Raiders easy non-conference slate, they have already secured a spot in a bowl game with a 7-4 overall record and 4-4 record inside conference play. While Texas Tech enters Saturday’s showdown with Baylor having lost three of four, all three of those losses came against quality opponents who are all currently ranked inside the Top 25 in Kansas State, Texas and Oklahoma State.
When you factor in how the Red Raiders have struggled of late and the Bears coming off a monumental win over Kansas State, you get a very interesting line. Baylor’s win over the Wildcats has most people ignoring the fact that this team is still just 2-5 in conference play with their only other win coming against Kansas at home.
There are three games I want to focus on for this matchup. While both teams have wins over Kansas, Texas Tech has also knocked off Iowa State, TCU and West Virginia in conference play. Both teams played at Iowa State. The Red Raiders won 24-13, while the Bears lost 21-35. Texas Tech beat TCU 56-53 in triple overtime on the road, while Baylor lost 21-49 at home to the Horned Frogs. The Red Raiders embarrassed the Mountaineers 49-14 at home, while the Bears lost 63-70 at West Virginia. In my opinion you could make a very strong argument that the wrong team is favored in this game.