Bears 49ers Odds
Posted by Steve Janus - Google+
The San Francisco 49ers will host the Chicago Bears in a huge NFC showdown on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 EST at Candlestick Park and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Oddsmakers have listed the 49ers as a 5-point home favorite with the total set at 38.5 points.
Why Chicago Will Cover:
The Bears six-game winning streak was put to an end this past weekend, as they fell at home to the Texans 6-13 on Sunday Night Football. Chicago not only loss the game, but they potentially lost starting quarterback Jay Cutler for this game. Cutler suffered a concussion and while he has shown signs of improvement during the week, he is still listed as doubtful.
A lot of people are instantly going to remember back to last season when Cutler was injured and the Bears stumbled out of playoff contention. While Chicago isn’t as strong of a team without Cutler in the lineup, they went out and spent some money on backup Jason Campbell for this very situation. You also have to remember that they were without the services of star running back Matt Forte and didn’t have a wide out anywhere as close to Brandon Marshall.
Chicago is not 7-2 because of Cutler, it’s the defense that has carried this team through the first nine games. That stop unit knows they are going to be called upon to step up and deliver against the 49ers and there’s a good chance they will do just that. We have already seen the San Francisco offense fail to deliver against some of the better defenses this season. Most notably their two losses to Minnesota (13-24) and New York (3-26) along with their 13-6 win over Seattle back in Week 7.
In the 49ers two losses this season they have turned the ball over three times in each game. There’s no team better than the Bears at forcing their opponents into mistakes. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this was a very close game that was decided by a field or less and that gives Chicago a lot of value as a 5-point dog.
Why San Francisco Will Cover:
The 49ers played in one of the more crazy games of this season this past Sunday. San Francisco tied the Rams 24-24 at home, as neither team was able to score in overtime. The 49ers also had to deal with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Alex Smith was knocked out of the game with a concussion. While Cutler’s status is doubtful, all signs point to Smith being able to play against the Bears. That is a huge for the 49ers as I really have a hard time seeing backup Colin Kaepernick being able to lead the offense against a stingy Chicago defense.
The difference in this game is the two offensive lines. Chicago has one of the worst front fives in the NFL. I have a very hard time seeing them being able to get anything going on the ground against a 49ers defense that is allowing just 95.3 ypg and will be extremely fired up playing at home on Monday Night Football. As a result of the Bears likely not being able to move the ball on the ground, it is going to set up a lot of long third downs where they 49ers will be able to send the pressure and make life miserable for Campbell. This would be a major concern even if Cutler was playing. The fact that he will more than likely be on the sideline really puts the Bears in a difficult situation.
On the flip side of things, the 49ers have one of very talented offensive line that loves to play physical football and help their team run the ball right down your throat. Chicago is only giving up 92.3 ypg on the the ground, but just this past weekend they let Arian Foster rush for 102 yards on 29 attempts. Look for Frank Gore to play a major role in this game, as the 49ers will look to take care of the football by keeping it out of the hands of Smith. San Francisco leads the NFL with an average of 170.2 ypg.
Two key trends that add some more value to the 49ers in this one. San Francisco is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and are a solid 21-6 ATS over their last 27 games on Monday Night Football.
Leave a Reply