Bears Vikings Odds
The Minnesota Vikings (6-6) host the Chicago Bears (8-4) Sunday at 1:00 PM ET in NFC North division action. Oddsmakers have listed the Bears as a three-point favorite with the total set at 39.5.
Why Chicago Covers
The Vikings have come back down to earth since a fast 5-2 start. They have lost four of their last five games both straight up and against the spread and will have a tough time bouncing back against a Chicago team that has had their number.
The Bears have won each of the past six meetings in the series with these wins coming by an average of 16.2 points. They covered the number in each of these six games.
While Minnesota won’t be lacking any motivation after the 28-10 defeat it was handed in Chicago two weeks ago, recent history suggests the Vikings are not a good play in revenge spots. Consider that Minnesota is on a 3-12 against the spread slide when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent. It has lost by an average score of 29.5 to 15.9 in this situation.
The Vikings are also on a 1-8 against the spread slide when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent.
If you’re going to beat the Bears, you better be able to pass the football. That’s because the Bears typically do a good job of stuffing the run. This doesn’t bode well for the Vikings.
Chicago ranks 10th in the league against the run with 103.5 yards allowed per game and held Minnesota to only 114 yards rushing in the first meeting. Chicago is on a 29-15 against the spread run versus good running teams like Minnesota that average 130.0 rushing yards or more per game.
It is significant that the Vikings are the worst passing team in the NFL with only 180.6 yards per game (that breaks down to just 5.7 yards per pass). That’s because Chicago is on a 6-0 against the spread run in road games versus poor passing teams that average 5.7 or less passing yards per attempt. The Bears have defeated these teams by an average score of 26.9 to 12.0.
Why Minnesota Covers
The Bears have cooled off since a 7-1 start. They have lost three of their last four games both straight up and against the spread.
Chicago is just 2-4 against the spread in its last six games as a favorite. The big reason it has struggled as chalk lately is because it is one of the weakest offensive teams in the NFL. The Bears rank 30th in the league in total offense with 303.4 yards per game. The Minnesota offense isn’t great but it has had more success moving the football than Chicago. It ranks 22nd with 335.5 yards per game.
The Vikings have been strong at home where they have won five of six games this season. One of their home wins was a 24-13 victory against the San Francisco 49ers, who crushed Chicago 32-7. Minnesota has gone 4-1-1 against the spread in these games.
Chicago has been a terrible investment on the road late in the season. In fact, it is just 11-27 against the spread in road games in the final four weeks of the regular season over the last two decades. It has lost by an average score of 24.5 to 15.8 in this situation.