Boise State at Nevada Odds
The Nevada Wolf Pack (7-4) host the 20th-ranked Boise State Broncos (9-2) Saturday at 3:30 PM ET in Mountain West Conference action. Oddsmakers have listed Boise State as a 9.5-point favorite and have set the total at 59.5.
Why Boise State Covers
The Broncos won’t be lacking any motivation as they can earn a share of the conference championship with a win.
Boise State typically hasn’t had much trouble against Nevada. The Broncos have won 11 of the past 12 meetings, including a 30-10 victory in last season’s meeting. Nine of these wins have come by double digits.
It is also worth noting that the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five at Nevada and 23-7 against the spread in their last 30 road games overall.
Nevada has been a terrible investment this season. It is 2-9 against the spread on the season and has failed to cover the number in each of its last seven games.
Boise State has long been one of the best investments in college football. It is 108-66 against the spread in all lined games over the last two decades and is a fantastic 50-34 against the number under coach Chris Petersen. The Broncos have even gotten the job done good teams.
Boise State is 38-17 against the spread when matched up against a team with a winning record over the last two decades. This trend tightens up to 25-8 against the spread if they are up against a team that has a winning percentage of .600 to .750. This trend is live Saturday as Nevada has a .636 winning percentage.
Why Nevada Covers
Nevada has played Boise State as tough as anyone in recent years. The Wolf Pack won 34-31 the last time they hosted the Broncos. Nevada has won or lost by seven points or less in three of the last five meetings and has gone 4-1 against the spread in these games.
The Wolf Pack have lost three home games this season but two of the losses came by a single point. One of those narrow defeats came against San Diego State, which also defeated Boise State 21-19 Nov. 3.
Nevada played San Diego State tougher than Boise State. The Wolf Pack put up 38 points on the Aztecs and out-gained them 480-349. The Broncos only managed 276 yards of offense in their meeting with the Aztecs.
Boise State is one of the top defensive teams in the country, but it will have its work cut out for itself as it goes up against one of the most explosive offenses in the nation. The Wolf Pack rank 10th in total offense with 509.5 yards per game and 16th in scoring with 38.5 points per game.
Boise State will have a tough time coming back if it falls behind early. That’s because it ranks 81st in total offense with 386.0 yards per game and 50th in scoring with 30.7 points per contest.
It is significant that Nevada ranks seventh in the country in rushing offense with 263.0 yards per game. That’s because the Broncos are 0-6 against the spread versus good rushing teams that average 200.0 rushing yards or more per game over the last two seasons. The Broncos have won these games on average but only by 8.5 points.