Broncos Bengals Odds
The Cincinnati Bengals (3-4) host the Denver Broncos (4-3) Sunday in AFC action. Oddsmakers have listed the Broncos as a 3.5-point favorite and have set the total at 47.5.
Why Denver Covers
The Broncos are 2-0 straight up and against the spread in their last two games with double-digit victories over the San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints.
The Bengals, meanwhile, are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in their last three games. They lost each by at least four points to the Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers. Two of these losses came at home.
Denver has had the upper hand against Cincinnati. It has won three in a row and eight of the past 10 meetings. These eight wins have come by an average of 7.4 points.
The Bengals have had a bye week to regroup but are just 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games following a bye. They are a poor 3-10-3 against the spread in their last 16 games overall and 0-3-1 against the number in their last four at home. Excluding pushes, Cincinnati is only 30-44 against the spread at home under coach Marvin Lewis.
The Bengals are 2-9 against the spread in home games versus excellent passing teams that average 7.5 passing yards or more per attempt under coach Lewis. With Peyton Manning at the controls, the Broncos are averaging a healthy 8.0 yards per pass attempt.
The Broncos racked up 530 yards of offense in last week’s 34-14 win against the Saints. That bodes well for them considering they are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games after gaining 500 total yards or more in their previous game. They have won by an average score of 28.1 to 20.4 in this situation.
Why Cincinnati Covers
Denver rolled last week, but it is on a 0-4 against the spread slide following a win of more than 14 points.
The Broncos have won three in a row versus the Bengals but two of those wins came by two points or fewer. The other was a five-point win they were fortunate to get. You might recall the improbable 87-yard touchdown pass from Kyle Orton to Brandon Stokley with just 11 seconds remaining.
The Broncos are just 2-5 against the spread in the past seven meetings. And, the underdog is 4-0 against the spread in the last four matchups.
The Broncos are 1-2 on the road and are fortunate not to be 0-3. They were down 24-0 at the half to the San Diego Chargers but were bailed out by San Diego’s six turnovers. Denver is just 1-4 against the number in its last five road contests.
Denver has been a poor investment for a long time now when up against losing teams. In fact, it is just 41-68 against the spread versus teams with a losing record the last two decades. It has especially been poor against marginal losing teams that have a winning percentage between 40.0-49.0 percent. They are just 7-22 against the spread versus such teams the last two decades and have lost to them by an average score of 22.1 to 21.4.
The Bengals have had success moving the ball through the air. They rank 11th in the league in passing offense with 257.4 yards per game. The fact Andy Dalton has completed 64.2 percent of his throws puts Denver into a negative spot. The Broncos are on a 16-37 against the spread slide versus quality passing teams that complete 64.0 percent of their passes or more. They have lost to these teams by an average score of 28.6 to 21.2.