Broncos Panthers Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd - Google+
The Carolina Panthers (2-6) host the Denver Broncos (5-3) Sunday in non-conference action. Oddsmakers have listed the Broncos as a four-point favorite and have set the total at 47.0.
Why Denver Covers
The Broncos are rolling. They have won three in a row both straight up and against the spread by an average of 13.0 points. Each of these victories came by at least eight points and two of the wins during this stretch came on the road.
The Panthers won their last game but had lost five in a row prior by an average of 8.2 points. They are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in their last three home games and have lost these by an average of 12.7 points. Each of these three losses came by at least four points.
The numbers suggest the Broncos are the superior team on both sides of the football. Denver ranks third in the NFL in total offense with 399.6 yards per game and fourth in scoring with 29.4 points per game. The Panthers rank 20th in total offense with 344.9 yards per game and 27th in scoring with 18.6 points per game.
Defensively, the Broncos rank 10th in total defense with 325.1 yards allowed per game and 13th in scoring defense with 21.9 points allowed per contest. The Panthers rank 13th in total defense with 343.0 yards allowed per game and 16th in scoring defense with 22.5 points allowed per game.
The Broncos have Peyton Manning, and he’s having a MVP-caliber season. He has completed 69.5 percent of his passes for 2,404 yards with 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. His 108.6 quarterback rating is the highest in the league.
Cam Newton has a passer rating of 77.7. He has connected on only 57.0 percent of his throws for 1,902 yards with six touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Why Carolina Covers
The numbers suggest the Broncos are being overvalued after scoring more than 30 points in three consecutive games. Consider that Denver is on a 1-10 against the spread slide after scoring 30 points or more in three straight games. It has won in this situation but only by an average of 1.6 points.
It is also worth noting that Denver is on a 42-68 against the spread skid when matched up against a team that has a losing record. It has only won by an average of 3.0 points in this situation. The Broncos are just 10-23 against the spread in their last 33 games against teams that have won 25 percent of their games or fewer. They have only won by an average of 1.2 points in this situation.
With these scenarios in mind, oddsmakers might be asking too much of the Broncos, especially since Carolina has won or lost by four points or less in four of its last five games. The lone exception was a five point loss.
Denver’s offense has had it going, but the Panthers are on a 16-6 against the spread run versus excellent offensive teams that average 375.0 yards or more per game. This trend tightens up to 12-2 against the spread versus such teams if the Panthers are playing at home. They have won by an average score of 23.0 to 18.1 in these spots.
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