Broncos Raiders Odds
The Oakland Raiders (3-9) host the Denver Broncos (9-3) Thursday night in AFC West division action. Oddsmakers have listed the Broncos as 10.5-point favorite and have set the total at 49.5.
Why Denver Covers
The Broncos have it going. They have won seven in a row by an average of 11.9 points and are 5-1-1 against the spread in these games.
The Raiders are ice cold. They have lost five in a row by an average of 18.6 points and are 0-4-1 against the spread in these games.
The Broncos are the superior team on both sides of the football. They rank third in the NFL in scoring with 29.1 points per game while the Raiders rank 24th with 19.6 points per game. Denver ranks fifth in total offense with 387.0 yards per game while Oakland ranks 13th with 361.8 yards per contest.
The Broncos rank third in the NFL in total defense with 308.2 yards allowed per game while the Raiders rank 28th with 387.0 yards allowed per game. Denver ranks ninth in scoring defense with 20.3 points allowed per game while Oakland ranks dead last with 31.3 points allowed per contest.
It doesn’t bode well for the Raiders that they are allowing opponents to complete 66.0 percent of their passes (this number rises to 67.8 percent at home). Led by Peyton Manning, the Broncos rank seventh in the NFL in passing offense with 283.7 yards per game and are 6-0 against the spread this season versus poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64.0 percent of higher. They have won these six by an average score of 33.4 to 18.1.
The Broncos have won the last two meetings by 14 and 31 points, respectively. The 37-6 defeat in the season’s first meeting is significant because the Raiders are on a 3-15 against the spread slide in home games when out for revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 28 points or more.
Why Oakland Covers
The Broncos could be in for a letdown Thursday night after clinching their second straight AFC West division title. This is also a potential look-ahead spot for them as they have a big showdown with the Baltimore Ravens next week.
The Broncos have not been a good investment against poor teams. In fact, they are just 11-24 against the spread when matched up against a team with a winning percentage of 25.0 percent or worse over the last two decades. They are only 5-15 against the number against such teams in the second half of the season during this span.
Denver is also on a 0-10 against the spread slide in the second half of the season versus teams that have been outscored by an average of 10.0 points or more on the season. It has actually lost by an average score of 24.0 to 17.8 in this situation.
The Raiders have shown they can hang with and beat good teams. They have a home win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they took the Atlanta Falcons right down to the wire on the road. In fact, they played the Falcons tougher than the Broncos did.
The Broncos defeated the Kansas City Chiefs by only eight points on the road Nov. 25. Keep in mind that the Raiders won by double digits in Kansas City earlier this season. If the Chiefs can stick with Denver so can the Raiders.