Broncos Ravens Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd - Google+
The Denver Broncos (13-3) host the Baltimore Ravens (11-6) Saturday at 4:30 PM ET in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. Oddsmakers have listed the Broncos as nine-point favorite and have set the total at 46.0.
Why Denver Covers
The Broncos haven’t lost in three months. They have won 11 in a row since falling 31-21 at New England Oct. 7. They are 9-1-1 against the number during this winning streak while carrying an average winning margin of 15.5 points. This streak includes a 34-17 victory at Baltimore Dec. 16.
Denver has been a terrific investment when laying points. It is 10-1 against the spread as a favorite this season and 6-0 against the number as a home favorite. It has won these six by an average score of 33.6 to 14.3. The Broncos are also 7-0 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and have won these by an average score of 32.4 to 16.0.
The Baltimore stop unit hasn’t been the dominant force we have become accustomed to seeing. It has allowed an average of 355.0 yards per game this season. This statistic is significant because the Broncos are 7-1 against the number this season when matched up against teams that give up 350.0 yards or more per game.
The Ravens average a respectable 5.7 yards per play on offense, but Denver is 7-1 against the number versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 yards or more per play this season.
The favorite is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings.
Why Baltimore Covers
The Ravens were embarrassed in the season’s first meeting, but history suggests they’ll be much more competitive this time around. Consider that underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scorched them for 28 points or more, provided the game takes place in the second half of the schedule and both teams have winning records, are 23-4 against the spread the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by only 0.7 points on average. It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 6-0 against the spread the last three seasons.
Baltimore played inspired football in its 24-9 wild-card win against the Indianapolis Colts. This is a team that wants to send Ray Lewis out in style.
The Ravens have a ton of playoff experience. They are 6-4 in the postseason dating back to the 2009 playoffs and only one of their losses during this stretch has come by more than nine points. It is also worth noting that the Ravens are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 playoff games on the road.
Playing last weekend could actually bode well for Baltimore. We’ve seen a number of teams that played wild-card weekend make Super Bowl runs the past few years. The New York Giants did so last season. The Green Bay Packers pulled off the feat the year before that.
Having an extra week off can actually hurt teams as it slows down their momentum. The Broncos could be a little rusty as they haven’t played since Dec. 30.
The Ravens are 7-2-1 against the spread in the last 10 meetings.
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