Browns Cowboys Odds
The Dallas Cowboys (4-5) host the Cleveland Browns (2-7) Sunday in non-conference action. Oddsmakers have listed Dallas as an eight-point favorite and have set the total at 43.5.
Why Dallas Covers
It has been a rough season for the Browns, especially on the road where they are 0-4. The season has not gone as planned for the Cowboys to this point, but they check in with momentum on their side following a 38-23 road win over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Browns lost their last game 25-15 at home to the Baltimore Ravens.
The numbers suggest Dallas is a better team than its record might lead you to believe. It ranks ninth in the NFL in total offense with 372.7 yards per game and eighth in total defense with 318.8 yards allowed per game. The numbers tell the story for the Browns as they rank 29th in total offense with 312.0 yards per game and 24th in total defense with 380.1 yards allowed per contest.
If you are going to back Dallas at home, it makes sense to do so late in the season. Consider that it is 30-15 against the spread in home games in Weeks 10 through 13 the last two decades. It is also on a 33-17 against the spread run at home in the month of November.
The Cowboys have dropped four of their last six, but they are on an impressive 19-8 against the spread run in home games if they have lost four or five of their last six contests.
Dallas has won the last two meetings both straight up and against the spread. It crushed the Browns 28-10 in Cleveland Sept. 7, 2008 in the most recent meeting.
Why Cleveland Covers
The Cowboys have not been kind to their backers. They are just 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 games overall. They have especially been unkind to their backers at home where they are just 2-9 against the spread dating back to last season. The Cowboys are 0-6 against the number in their last six home games.
Dallas has also been a poor investment when laying points. It is just 6-18 against the spread as a favorite over the last three seasons. It has won on average in these games but only by 2.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Cowboys are on a 3-12 against the spread slide as a home favorite and a 3-12 against the spread slide as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
It is also significant that Dallas checks in off a win because it is just 1-10 against the spread after one or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The Browns enter off a straight up and against the spread loss, but they have been awesome in bounce back spots. They are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following a straight up loss and 6-0 against the spread in their last six games following a game that they did not cover in.
Cleveland is also 5-2-1 against the spread in its last eight road games and 8-2 against the number in its last 10 road games versus teams that have a losing mark at home.