California at Oregon State Odds
Posted by Steve Janus - Google+
This Saturday the No. 16 ranked Oregon State Beavers will host the California Golden Bears in Pac-12 play. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 EST at Reser Stadium and will be televised on the Pac-12 Network. Most books don’t have a line posted for this game, but we are showing a couple who have Oregon State listed as a 14-point favorite.
Why California Will Cover
The Golden Bears come into this game off a 17-59 loss at home to unbeaten Oregon. Cal has now lost four straight and are just 3-8 overall and 2-6 inside the conference. This will be the final chapter of the 2012 season for head coach Jeff Tedford and his players. There’s not a lot of positives for this team, as they will likely be without starting quarterback Zach Maynard for a second straight game and will not have the services of top wide out Keenan Allen.
The Beavers are also dealing with some injury issues of their own. Junior quarterback Cody Vaz is doubtful for this game after suffering an ankle injury in the loss to Stanford. Vaz took over the starting job from sophomore Sean Mannion early this season and has played extremely well. While both quarterbacks have thrown 8 touchdowns on the season, Vaz had just one interception in 140 attempts. Mannion threw 8 picks in 204 attempts, which was a big reason why he was benched.
Cal has been a good team to back when they give up a big number on the defensive side of the ball in their previous game. The Golden Bears are 9-1 ATS after allowing 50 points or more last game since 1992. They are also a respectable 6-2-1 ATS over their last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home. It’s also worth mentioning that Oregon State tends to play down to their competition, as they are just 2-6 ATS over their last 8 games with a losing record. On top of that, this is a very difficult spot for the Beavers. They just got done playing a huge game against Stanford and have their huge rivalry game against Oregon on deck next week.
Why Oregon State Will Cover
The Beavers ended up losing 23-27 at Stanford this past weekend for their second loss in their last three games. Oregon State is still 7-2 overall and 5-2 inside the conference. The Beavers are a perfect 4-0 at home this season and will be taking on a depleted Cal team that has not played well on the road. The Golden Bears are just 1-3 away away from home and that lone win came against a bad Washington State squad.
The injuries to the two starting quarterbacks is the key to this game and you have to give the edge to Mannion and the Beavers. Allan Bridgford stepped in and started last week for Cal against Oregon and he didn’t impress. Bridgford went just 9 of 21 for 113 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. It was the third game this season that he saw action. During those three games he has completed a miserable 35.1% of his passes and there is little reason to believe it will get any better against an Oregon State defense that is allowing just 19.1 ppg. Considering the Beavers have the 10th ranked rushing attack and the fact that they know Bridgford isn’t a threat, it hard to see the Golden Bears doing much of anything offensively.
Last week Cal managed to put together just 113 yards of total offense. That’s typically a good sign to fade the Golden Bears, as they are just 2-10 ATS in road games after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game since 1992. Oregon State on the other hand is 4-1 ATS over their last 5 home games and 5-2 ATS over their last 7 games following a loss.
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