Chargers Broncos Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd
A spot in the AFC Championship Game will be up for grabs this Sunday when the Denver Broncos host the San Diego Chargers. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:40 EST at Sports Authority Field at Mile High and will be televised nationally on CBS. This will be the third meeting between these two AFC West rivals. The Broncos won 28-20 at San Diego in Week 10, but would suffer their only home loss of the season in a 20-27 defeat to the Chargers in Week 15. Oddsmakers aren’t exactly giving San Diego much love, as the Broncos are currently listed as a 9.5-point home favorite with the total set at 55.5 points.
Why San Diego Will Cover:
The Chargers continued their impressive run down the stretch with a surprising 27-10 road win over Cincinnati. San Diego trailed 7-10 at the half, but would outscore the Bengals 20-0 in the final two periods. Maybe the most shocking thing was that the Chargers won relatively easily with Philip Rivers throwing for just 128 yards. San Diego imposed their will on the ground, rushing 40 times for a season-high 196 yards and two scores.
The Chargers recipe for beating the Bengals was very similar to their recent win over the Broncos. Rivers threw for just 166 yards versus Denver in Week 15, while San Diego controlled the clock with 177 rushing yards. The ability to move the football on the ground is crucial for beating the Broncos, as it keeps Manning and their high-powered offense on the sideline. Something to keep in mind is that Denver had just barely over 21 minutes of possession time in the last game against the Chargers.
I don’t know if San Diego will be able to upset the Broncos on the road in consecutive games, but there is plenty of reason to believe they can keep this game within double-digits and cover the spread. There’s a solid system in play telling us to fade Denver. Home favorites revenging a loss to an opponent who are off two straight games where they won and covered as a favorite are just 4-23 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That’s a 85.2% system in favor of the Chargers.
Home favorites revenging a loss to an opponent who are off two straight games where they won and covered as a favorite are just 4-23 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That’s a 85.2% system in favor of the Chargers.
Both of these teams have elite quarterbacks, yet it’s San Diego who has fared better when going up against strong offensive teams. The Chargers are 19-8 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams – averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season and 16-6 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992. Denver on the other hand is 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season.
Why Denver Will Cover:
The Broncos are considered by many as the team to beat in the AFC and that’s pretty evident by the massive spread we are seeing in this game. Denver got a rude awakening in last year’s Divisional round when Baltimore stunned the Broncos 38-35 in double-overtime. This team is going to be all business and if there’s one team you can feel confident laying this many points, it’s Denver. The Broncos are 21-10 ATS overall, 15-4 ATS when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 11-3 ATS as a home favorite since Manning came to town.
The Broncos are 21-10 ATS overall, 15-4 ATS when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 11-3 ATS as a home favorite since Manning came to town.
With the way the Chargers have been able to find ways to win games and the Broncos defense not being as strong as they had hoped, you have to expect Denver to come out looking to put this game away early. Something to keep in mind is that Manning will have star slot receive Wes Welker back, who missed the last game vs the Chargers. Not having Welker available in Week 15, played a big role in the Broncos going just 2 for 9 on third down conversions.
Couple systems in play telling us to fade the Chargers. Any team (SAN DIEGO) – a good offensive team (23-27 ppg) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games are just 23-50 (31.5%) ATS since 1983. We also see that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a upset win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season are just 37-72 (33.9%) ATS since 1983.
Early Lean – Chargers +9.5