Chiefs Raiders Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd - Google+
The Kansas City Chiefs (2-11, 1-5 away) take on the Oakland Raiders (3-10, 2-5 home) in an AFC West rivalry this Sunday. Taking a look at the pro football odds for Week 15, I find a line of Kansas City -3 over Oakland and a total set of 43.5 points.
Why Oakland Covers
The Raiders will be motivated to put an end to their six games losing streak against one of their biggest rivals in this AFC South showdown. They have been giving good effort the last two weeks in losses to the Browns and Broncos, and now they have a good chance to end this skid against one of the worst teams in the league.
Working in Oakland’s favor is the fact that they will be coming in on three extra days’ rest. It played last Thursday against Denver, so it will be the fresher, more prepared team coming in. That also helps Darren McFadden, who just returned last week from an ankle injury.
While the Raiders have McFadden back, the Chiefs have just lost leading receiver Dwayne Bowe for the rest of the season. Bowe suffered broken ribs in the Chiefs’ 7-30 loss at Cleveland last week. He is clearly the go-to receiver on this team with 59 receptions for 801 yards and three touchdowns. The second-leading receiver is tight end Tony Moeaki, who has 28 grabs for 396 yards and a score, so there’s no question that this is a huge loss for Kansas City.
Oakland has won four of its last five meetings with Kansas City while going 4-1 against the spread in the process. Carson Palmer threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns, while McFadden rushed for 114 yards in a 26-16 victory at Kansas City in their first meeting this season. The Chiefs are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Why Kansas City Covers
The Raiders have been the worst team in the league over the last six weeks. They have gone 0-6 straight up and 0-5-1 against the spread during this stretch. They have lost five of those six games by 10 or more points, and they are giving up a ridiculous 35.8 points per game during this skid. You could certainly make the argument that they should be favored given their recent play.
That’s especially the case when you look at how well the road team has fared in this rivalry. The road squad has won 11 of the last 12 meetings, which is absolutely astounding. Dating back further, the road team is 21-5-1 against the spread in the last 27 meetings. Kansas City is 8-1 against the spread in its last 9 meetings in Oakland.
This play falls into a system that is 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) – revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season.
Oakland is 22-46-1 against the spread in its last 69 home games. The Raiders are 18-42-1 against the spread in their last 61 vs. a team with a losing record. Oakland is 1-11 against the spread in home games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992. Kansas City is 10-1 against the spread in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more since 1992.
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