Colts Patriots Odds
This Sunday the New England Patriots will host the Indianapolis Colts. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 EST at Gillette Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as a 9-point home favorite with the total posted at 53.5 points.
Why Indianapolis Will Cover:
The Colts went on the road in a short week and hammered the Jaguars 27-10 as a 3-point favorite and have now won four straight to improve their overall record to 6-3. For whatever reason no one wants to seem to give this team the respect they deserve, but bettors who have backed Indy early certainly aren’t complaining. Indianapolis is a solid 6-3 ATS the spread this season and have covered the number in four straight and five of six overall.
While it will be extremely hard for the Colts to keep their winning streak going on the road against a very good New England team, they appear to have an excellent shot at covering this large spread. The Patriots have simply not been able to cover a large number this season. Three times New England has been listed as a favorite of more than a touchdown and all three times they have failed to cover.
The key to this game will be the play of rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, who has somehow exceeded some pretty high expectations. A lot of people knew that Luck was going to be a star in this league, I just don’t think they thought it would happen this quickly. Luck and the Colts come into this game with the 8th ranked passing offense in the league at 277.9 ypg. Their ability to throw the ball certainly gives them a chance to keep this game close, as the Patriots rank 29th in pass defense allowing just over 285 ypg.
The Colts are an impressive 10-2 ATS over their last 12 road games vs a team that features an awful pass defense (allowing 7.5 or more yards/attempt). While a number of those games came with Peyton Manning under center, it’s worth some value given how well Luck has played to this point. New England is one of the more popular teams the public likes to back, and as a result they typically are overvalued. The Patriots are just 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Why New England Will Cover:
After a surprising 1-2 start to the season the Patriots have got things headed in the right direction. With last week’s 37-31 home win over the Bills New England improved to 6-3 overall. They have won three straight and five of six overall.
If there was ever a time to fade the Colts, this certainly appears like the spot to do it. Indianapolis is clearly playing some good football, but they have also benefited from a pretty weak schedule. The Colts four-game winning streak has come against the Browns, Titans, Dolphins and Jaguars. Not exactly top notch competition. While they do have a very impressive win at home over the Packers, they have not looked good in a couple of big road games. They started out the season with a 21-41 loss at Chicago and later lost at the New York Jets 9-35.
While the Colts figure to have some success throwing the ball against the Patriots, you have to believe head coach Bill Belichick is going to devise some schemes to confuse the rookie. Luck has thrown 7 of his nine interceptions this season on the road. If New England can win the turnover battle they should have a great shot at winning this game by double-digits. New England is 15-5 ATS over their last 20 games vs excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more yards/game in the second half of the season.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots should be able to score at will against a pretty suspect Colts defense. Indianapolis ranks 15th against the pass at 230.2 ypg and 22nd against the run at 120.3 ypg, despite playing some of the worst offenses in the league.
The Colts inability to stop the run is a big key in this game. Indianapolis is a miserable 4-13 ATS over their last 17 road games vs a strong rushing team (averaging 130 or more yards/game) in the second half of the season.