Colts Ravens Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd
The Baltimore Ravens (10-6) will host the Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at 1:00 PM ET in the first of Sunday’s two wild card matchups. CBS has the television coverage. Oddsmakers have listed the Ravens as a 6.5-point favorite and have set the total at 46.0.
Why Baltimore Covers
The Ravens enter this matchup with unwavering confidence as they know what it takes to win this time of year. They have won their first playoff game each of the past four seasons, and each of these wins came by at least seven points.
Baltimore defeated the Houston Texans 20-13 in the divisional round of last season’s playoffs following a first-round bye. It crushed the Kansas City Chiefs 30-7 in the wild card round of the 2011 playoffs. It kicked the New England Patriots 33-14 in the wild card round of the 2010 playoffs. And, it handed the Miami Dolphins a 27-9 defeat in the wild card round of the 2009 postseason.
The Ravens will also draw a great deal of confidence from playing this game at home. They have gone 6-2 at home this season and are an impressive 22-3 in all home games since the start of the 2010-11 season.
The Indianapolis defense leaves plenty to be desired. It finished the regular season ranked 26th in the NFL in total defense with 374.2 yards allowed per game. This breaks down further to a dismal 6.2 yards allowed per play. This statistic is worth noting because the Ravens are on a 19-8 against the spread run in home games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 yards or more per game. The Ravens have won these contests by an average score of 27.8 to 15.1.
It is also worth noting that Baltimore limited its last two opponents to 119 and 142 passing yards, respectively. That’s because the Ravens are on a 6-0 against the spread run after allowing 150 or less passing yards in two straight games. They have won in this situation by an average score of 25.9 to 15.7.
Why Indianapolis Covers
The Colts have plenty of momentum on their side. They enter the playoffs with wins in each of their last two games, five of their last six and nine of their last 11. They are an impressive 9-2 against the spread over their last 11 games.
While Indianapolis marches into the postseason riding high, the Ravens limp in with four losses in their last five games. They went just 1-4 against the number during this skid. It is significant that Baltimore enters off a 23-17 loss at Cincinnati as it is 0-6 against the spread in home games following a road loss over the last three seasons.
The Ravens are often overvalued at home because of the success they have enjoyed there. In fact, they are only 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games at M&T Bank Stadium.
Baltimore won last season’s meeting against the Colts, but it had lost eight straight in the series prior. Many of those defeats were directly correlated to big games from Peyton Manning. Now, the Colts have another capable signal caller in Andrew Luck. He has shown, already in his rookie season, that he can put the team on his back and win games late.
The Colts are 8-0 against the spread in the last eight meetings and 5-0 against the number in the last five meetings in Baltimore.