This Sunday the Indianapolis Colts (2-2, 3-1 ATS) will host the Baltimore Ravens (3-1, 3-1 ATS). Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 EST at Lucas Oil Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS. Oddsmakers currently have the Colts listed as a 3-point home favorite with the total set at 48.5 points.
This will be the first meeting between these two teams since their AFC Wild Card showdown back following the 2012 regular season. Baltimore won that matchup 24-9 as a 7.5-point home favorite.
Early Lean on Ravens +3
I like the value we are getting with Baltimore in this one. There’s been so much attention given to Ray Rice off the field that it’s almost as if everyone is overlooking what the Ravens are doing on the field. Baltimore comes in having won 3 straight and could easily be sitting at 4-0. After erasing a 15-point first half deficit against the Bengals in Week 1, Baltimore allowed a 77-yard touchdown pass to A.J. Green to lose 16-23. They outgained the Bengals 423-380 for the game and Cincinnati is getting as much love as any team in the league right now.
A big reason we are getting the Ravens at 3.5 is the books overvaluing the Andrew Luck and the Colts, who have quickly become one of the publics favorite teams to back. Indianapolis hasn’t let the public down with a 3-1 ATS record to start the season and come in off two blowout wins over the Jaguars (44-17) and Titans (41-17).
As impressive as those two wins over Jacksonville and Tennessee look on paper, those are two of the worst teams in the league right now. The Titans have lost each of their last 3 games by over two touchdowns and the Jaguars haven’t came within 17-points of their opponents in 2014. In fact, we see that teams with a line of +3 to -3 after 2 straight dominating performances (34+ minutes of possession and 24+ first downs) are just 6-26 ATS (19%) since 1983.
Teams with a line of +3 to -3 after 2 straight dominating performances (34+ minutes of possession and 24+ first downs) are just 6-26 ATS (19%) since 1983.
We have already saw the Colts lose at home in a huge primetime game on Monday Night Football against the Eagles and I believe Baltimore is even stronger than the Philadelphia. The Ravens come in with the the 6th ranked offense in the league, averaging 394.3 ypg. Don’t be fooled by the Colts holding each of their last two opponents under 20 points. Indianapolis is not a strong defensive team at all. They allowed 61 points in their first two games against the Broncos and Eagles. I look for the Ravens to put up a big number here and win this game outright.
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