Texans Colts Odds
The Indianapolis Colts (10-5) host the Houston Texans (12-3) Sunday at 1:00 PM ET in AFC South division action. Oddsmakers have listed the Texans as a 4.5-point favorite.
Why Houston Covers
The Texans blew an opportunity to clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs with last week’s 23-6 home loss to the Minnesota Vikings. They still have an opportunity to lock it up this week with a victory so there is plenty to play for. Lose, and they could miss out on home-field all together.
Houston handled the Indianapolis Colts just two weeks ago. It won 29-17 to cover the 10.5-point spread while outgaining the Colts 417-272. Houston’s running attack, which ranks seventh in the NFL with 134.8 yards per game, was instrumental in the victory as it racked up 178 yards while averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry. It could be poised for another big day on the ground as the Colts rank 30th in the league against the run with 139.9 yards allowed per game.
The Texans received a bit of a scare with Arian Foster leaving last week’s game early in the third quarter with an irregular heartbeat. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear the condition is serious, and he is expected to be in the lineup Sunday. This means the Texans will have their top offensive weapon on the field. Foster ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,328 and leads the league in touchdowns with 16.
Houston has been a terrific investment as it is on a 21-10 against the spread run dating back to last season. It is 18-6 against the spread versus AFC opponents during this stretch.
Why Indianapolis Covers
The Colts, who clinched a spot in the playoffs with last week’s 20-13 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs, have been tough as nails at home this season. They are 6-1 straight up and against the spread at home on the season and have covered the number in each of their last five home contests, winning them by an average of 4.2 points. Their most impressive home win is a 30-27 victory over the Green Bay Packers on Oct. 7. Keep in mind the Packers crushed the Texans 42-24 on the road the following week.
Houston has not been able to come up with a win in Indianapolis. The Texans are 0-10 all-time in Indy and have lost these games by an average of 14.1 points. They even fell 19-16 in Indy last season when the Colts were arguably the worst team in the NFL. It is worth noting that the home team has covered the spread in each of the last five meetings.
The Colts have been an unbelievable investment lately. In fact, they are 8-2 straight up against the spread since Oct. 21. Looking back further, they are on an impressive 18-7-2 against the spread run versus teams that have a winning record.
The Texans have shown some susceptibility to the pass. They rank 16th in the NFL with 228.3 passing yards allowed per game.
Led by rookie sensation Andrew Luck, the Colts have a passing game capable of taking advantage of Houston’s secondary. Indy ranks seventh in the NFL in passing offense with 262.9 yards per game.