Connecticut at Louisville Spread
The 20th-ranked Louisville Cardinals (9-1) host the Connecticut Huskies (4-6) Saturday at 12:00 PM ET in Big East Conference action. Oddsmakers have listed Louisville as an 11.5-point favorite and have set the total at 45.5.
Why Louisville Covers
Motivated by a 45-26 loss at Syracuse in its last game, and having had a bye week to gear up, Louisville will be hungry and prepared when it takes the field Saturday.
The Cardinals are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games following a loss, 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games following a bye week.
Connecticut is also coming off a bye week. However, it is 1-3-1 against the spread in its last five games following a bye.
The Cardinals have been dominant at home where they are 6-0 with an average winning margin of 14.0 points. The Huskies, on the other hand, have been brutal on the road. They have lost their last four road games and are just 3-11 against the spread in road games the last three seasons.
Connecticut is 0-7 against the spread when listed as a road underdog the last two seasons and has lost these games by an average of 14.0 points.
The Huskies ended a four-game losing streak with a win over Pittsburgh in their last game, but they are 0-7 against the spread after one or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The Louisville offense has been solid all season. The same can’t be said about the Connecticut offense, which is among the worst in college football. The Huskies rank 120th in scoring with 17.3 points per game and 113th in total offense with 320.6 yards per game. These numbers fall well short of the 33.2 points and 434.3 yards per game the Cardinals average.
Louisville has had the upper hand in the series lately. It has won each of the past two meetings by 26 and 14 points, respectively.
Why Connecticut Covers
While the Connecticut offense has struggled, the defense has more than held its own. Four of UConn’s six defeats have come by seven points or fewer as the defense has kept it in games. The Huskies rank ninth in the nation in total defense with 296.2 yards allowed per contest and 19th in scoring defense with 18.4 points allowed per game.
The Huskies have dropped four of their last five and five of their last seven games but such a stretch has boded well for their backers historically. In fact, they are on a 19-6 against the spread run when checking in off three losses in their last four games. They are on a 13-3 against the spread run when checking in with five or six losses in their last seven games.
The Cardinals have failed to cover the number in five of their last seven games and are on 2-7 against the spread slide in home games versus teams that have a losing road record. The Cardinals are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games overall versus teams that have a losing record.