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Cowboys Eagles Odds

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The Cowboys and Eagles are both in control of their own fate when they face off to determine the AFC East division winner.  The winner of this game makes a playoff appearance, while the loser gets set home for the year.  The Eagles have a 9-6 record, and they are coming off a dominating performance over the Bears last week.  The Cowboys are not far behind at 8-7, and it took a late comeback against Washington to keep their playoff hopes alive.

These teams met earlier this season in a game that was dominated by Dallas.  The Cowboys picked up a 17-3 victory, but the Eagles have won six of their last eight games since that meeting.  Dallas has a 5-2 record at home, while Philadelphia comes into this game with a 5-2 record on the road.

Kick-off takes place on Sunday at 8:30 PM ET with television coverage provided by FOX.  The oddsmakers have listed the home team Cowboys as a 7.5-point underdog.  The total is set at 55.5-points which indicates a potential shootout.

Why Dallas Covers

Motivation should not be an issue for Dallas this week when they get their chance to win the division for the home crowd.  The Eagles are coming off a dominating performance over Chicago last week, and that may have earned them a little too much respect from the oddsmakers.  Philadelphia is 6-16 ATS when coming off a home game.  On the other hand, I think the Cowboy’s close game against Washington has them coming into this matchup severely underrated.

The Eagles are 6-16 ATS when coming off a home game.

In the last meeting between these teams the Cowboys dominated the Eagles from start to finish.  That game was played at Philadelphia, and this week they have the benefit of playing at home.  Quarterback Tony Romo was recently diagnosed with a season ending back injury.  His replacement, Kyle Orton is a more than capable quarterback with a lot of experience as a starter.  Orton might be one of the best back-ups in the league, and he should carve up the Eagles defense.

I expect the Cowboys to put on another strong defensive performance against the Eagles this week.  If they shut down LeSean McCoy then the Eagles will be in big trouble.  The Cowboys may be giving up a lot of points, but their run defense has been solid at home allowing just 110 rushing yards per game.  That is a difference of just two yards from the 108 per game allowed by the Eagles.

Why Philadelphia Covers

For whatever reason Philadelphia has played a lot better on the road than they have at home this year, so I don’t expect the Cowboys to get a lot of benefit from home field advantage in this game.  Philadelphia averages 32.3 points per game in road games, and they will be looking for revenge after being held to just three-points the last time these teams met.  The Eagles are 16-5 ATS in road games when they are revenging a loss where they scored less than 14-points.

The Eagles are 16-5 ATS in road games when they are revenging a loss where they scored less than 14-points.

The Eagles defense has earned a reputation for being soft, but that did not stop them from holding the Bears to just 11-points last week.  Philadelphia has won six of their last seven games, allowing 21 points or less in all six of those victories.  They have actually allowed 21 points or less in 10 of their last 11 games, and if not for a slow start to the season they would be getting the credit they deserve coming into this matchup.

The majority of the Cowboys offense is derived from the passing attack.  I think that gives the Eagles a significant matchup advantage since they have held opposing quarterbacks to a mere 60.6 percent completion rate.  The Cowboys on the other hand are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.8 percent of their pass attempts for 291 yards per game.  Nick Foles should have a big game as he looks to add to his 25:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

My Pick

With the injury to Romo I think avoiding the side all together is probably a wise move.  One thing is certain in this matchup, and that is both teams are horrible defensively.  The over seems like a good bet, especially with the Cowboys having a more than capable back-up quarterback under center.

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