First place in the NFC East will be up for grabs when the Philadelphia Eagles (9-4, 8-5 ATS) host the Dallas Cowboys (9-4, 7-6 ATS) on Sunday Night Football in Week 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 EST at Lincoln Financial Field and will be televised nationally on NBC. Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as a 3-point home favorite with the total set at 55 points.
This will be the second meeting between these two division rivals in the last 3 weeks, as they faced off a couple of weeks ago in Dallas on Thanksgiving. The first matchup didn’t exactly live up the hype, as Philadelphia cruised to a 33-10 win over the Cowboys as a 3-point underdog. The road team has won each of the last 3 meetings and 7 of the last 9 overall.
Early Lean on Eagles -3
While most are expecting the Cowboys to get their revenge and add to their perfect 6-0 record on the road, I think we are catching some great value here with the Eagles laying just a field goal at home. I know Philadelphia lost at home to the Seahawks last week, while Dallas rolled over the Bears on the road, but I wasn’t surprised at all by those results. The Eagles were in a huge letdown spot off that big win over the Cowboys and knew that win or lose the NFC East was going to come down to this matchup. Dallas on the other hand had to win against Chicago and that was a great matchup for the Cowboys with the way the Bears have been struggling defensively.
The key to the Eagles win over Dallas back in Week 13 was the Philadelphia defense hold DeMarco Murray to a season-low 73 yards. Some might consider that a fluke with the way Murray has been torching defenses this season, but that’s not 4 straight times that the Eagles have held Murray under 100 yards. Philadelphia backed up that performance by holding Marshawn Lynch to 86 yards on 23 attempts last week. I look for the Eagles to once again keep Murray in check and that should be enough to get them a win and cover at home.
Philadelphia is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 after being outgained by 100 or more total yards and 30-14 ATS in their last 44 in the second half of the season against bad defensive teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yards/play.
Defensively Dallas has been better than a lot of people expected this season, but they are still one of the worst units in the league. The Cowboys come in ranked 25th against the pass (251.9 ypg) and 17th against the pass (113.1 ypg). They simply don’t have the depth to go up against the Eagles up-tempo attack. Philadelphia did as they pleased in that first meeting. Mark Sanchez completed 20 of 29 attempts for 217 yards and LeSean McCoy rushed for 159 yards on 25 attempts (256 total rushing yards for Philadelphia). Keep in mind that the Eagles are averaging 33.4 ppg at home compared to 25.8 ppg on the road.
Dallas is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in their last game and just 1-8 in the second half of the season against teams who are averaging 375 or more total yards/game. Philadelphia is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 after being outgained by 100 or more total yards and 30-14 ATS in their last 44 in the second half of the season against bad defensive teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yards/play.
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