This Sunday the Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) will host the Dallas Cowboys (1-0) in a highly anticipated NFC East matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 EST at Lincoln Financial Field and will be televised locally on FOX. Taking a look at our Week 2 NFL spreads, oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as a 5.5-point home favorite with the total set at 55 points.
While the Cowboys failed to cover as 7-point home favorites, they were gifted a 27-26 win at home in Week 1 against the Giants, as New York failed miserably at running out the clock. The Eagles managed to rally from a 17-point half-time deficit to take the lead, but ended up losing 24-26 at Atlanta on Monday Night Football.
These two teams have split the season series each of the last two years with the road team winning outright as an underdog in all 4 meetings. Last year the Eagles won 33-10 as a 3-point dog at Dallas in Week 13, only to lose 27-38 at home as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 15.
Early Lean on Eagles -5.5
I’ll admit that it’s hard to convince myself to lay the points in a series where the underdog has dominated of late, cashing each of the last 5 games and winning the last 4 outright. However, I think the situation here favors the Eagles to win by at least a touchdown.
I think the loss of star wide out Dez Bryant is going to really hurt the Cowboys offense going forward, as I don’t expect their running game to be near as dominant as it was last year. They only managed 80 yards on 23 attempts (3.5 yards/carry) against a Giants defense that isn’t all that great. Much like we saw with Julio Jones, Bryant would have had a field day against this Eagles secondary, but without him I think Philadelphia is going to be able to keep Romo and that passing game in check.
Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game the previous year and are coming off a game where 50 or more combined points were scored are 34-9 (79%) ATS since 1983.
Offensively the Eagles came out flat against the Falcons, but were able to get it in gear in the 2nd half. They ended up finishing the game with 399 yards of total offense and that was with just 63 yards rushing. I’m not a fan of the Dallas defense, which is decimated right now with injuries and suspensions. They lost starting corner Orlando Scandrick for the year, defensive end Greg Hardy and linebacker Rolando McClain are suspended the first 4 games and star rookie defensive end Randy Gregory is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. I look for the Eagles up-tempo attack to wear down the Cowboys defense in this one.
The biggest key here to why I would lean towards the Eagles this early in the week, is motivation. Not only is Philadelphia going to be excited for their home opener and to avoid an 0-2 start, but the Eagles’ players are going to want to play well here for new running back DeMarco Murray, who the Cowboys shunned after he led the league in rushing last year.
Over the last 3 seasons the Eagles are a perfect 6-0 ATS off a road loss, while Dallas is a mere 17-32 in their last 49 road games after gaining 400 or more total yards of offense in their last game. We also find a strong system in play favoring the Eagles. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game the previous year and are coming off a game where 50 or more combined points were scored are 34-9 (79%) ATS since 1983.
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