Daytona 500 Predictions

Posted by on

Daytona 500

The 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series is back and ready to kickoff another exciting year of racing with the Daytona 500. The race is scheduled for Sunday, February 23. The green flag start is set for 1:00 EST at Daytona International Speedway and will be televised nationally on FOX.

While other sports have their biggest event typically scheduled for the end of the season, the Sprint Cup Series starts off with the most important and prestigious race of the entire year. This is arguably the only race that drivers consider a must win to solidify their career. With so much at stake drivers will do almost anything to get a win.

Odds to Win Daytona 500

Winning the Daytona 500 is no easy task. Unlike the majority of the races over the course of the season, where certain drivers have an advantage depending on the style of the track, there is no edge in this race. When it comes to restrictor-plate races, if you are in the field, you have a legit chance at winning this race. While we have seen big names when each of the last two years, we are just three years removed from Trevor Bayne’s improbable win at Daytona. Bayne became the youngest driver to ever win the race at the age of just 20, and anyone who bet the youngster enjoyed a massive 125 to 1 payout.

Last year, Jimmie Johnson won his second Daytona 500, which was just the being of another fantastic season. Johnson went on to win his sixth Sprint Cup Series Championship. As you can see in the table below, Johnson is one of the favorites to win the event again this year. However, history is not on his side. The last driver to win this race in back-to-back starts was Sterling Martin in 1994 and 1995. It’s a feat that has only been accomplished three times in the history of this event.

My Picks to Win (1 unit each)

Kevin Harvick (12/1)
Denny Hamlin (14/1)
Brad Keselowski (16/1)

Driver Odds
Dale Earnhardt Jr. #88 10/1
Jimmie Johnson #48 12/1
Kevin Harvick #4 12/1
Kyle Busch #18 12/1
Matt Kenseth #20 12/1
Denny Hamlin #11 14/1
Jeff Gordon #24 14/1
Tony Stewart #14 14/1
Austin Dillon #3 16/1
Brad Keselowski #2 16/1
Carl Edwards #99 16/1
Clint Bowyer #15 16/1
Kasey Kahne #5 16/1
Kurt Busch #41 16/1
Joey Logano #22 18/1
Ryan Newman #31 20/1
Greg Biffle #16 25/1
Jamie McMurray #1 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. #78 25/1
Brian Vickers #55 33/1
Danica Patrick #10 40/1
Kyle Larson #42 40/1
Michael Waltrip #66 40/1
Paul Menard #27 40/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. #17 40/1
A.J. Allmendinger #47 66/1
Aric Almirola #43 66/1
Casey Mears #13 66/1
David Ragan #34 66/1
Landon Cassill #40 66/1
Marcos Ambrose #9 66/1
Trevor Bayne #21 66/1
Bobby Labonte #52 75/1
Brian Scott #33 75/1
Dave Blaney #77 100/1
David Gilliland #38 100/1
Justin Allgaier #51 100/1
Parker Kilgerman #30 100/1
Alex Bowman #23 150/1
Cole Whitt #26 150/1
Eric McClure #35 150/1
Joe Nemechek #87 150/1
Josh Wise #98 150/1
Michael Annett #7 150/1
Michael McDowell #95 150/1
Morgan Shepherd #93 150/1
Reed Sorenson #36 150/1
Ryan Truex #83 150/1
Terry Labonte #32 150/1

Odds to Finish Top 3

Due to the difficulty of picking the winner, it’s not a bad idea to throw a few bets on who you think is going to race well to finish inside the Top 3. One driver that always seems to be a great bet for this is Dale Earnhardt Jr. He’s won just two races in six seasons with Hendrick and has never won a restrictor-plate race, but he always seems to be in contention. His 12.9 average finish at Daytona over 20 career starts on this track, is the best among all active drivers. Earnhardt Jr was runner-up to Johnson last year.

Picks to Finish Top 3 (1/2 unit each)

Dale Earnhardt Jr (+300)
Denny Hamlin (+425)
Carl Edwards (+450)
Brad Keselowski (+450)

Driver Odds
Dale Earnhardt Jr. #88 3/1
Jimmie Johnson #48 7/2
Kevin Harvick #4 7/2
Kyle Busch #18 7/2
Matt Kenseth #20 7/2
Denny Hamlin #11 17/4
Jeff Gordon #24 17/4
Tony Stewart #14 17/4
Austin Dillon #3 9/2
Brad Keselowski #2 9/2
Carl Edwards #99 9/2
Clint Bowyer #15 9/2
Kasey Kahne #5 9/2
Kurt Busch #41 9/2
Joey Logano #22 11/2
Ryan Newman #31 6/1
Greg Biffle #16 15/2
Jamie McMurray #1 15/2
Martin Truex Jr. #78 15/2
Brian Vickers #55 10/1
Michael Waltrip #66 10/1
Danica Patrick #10 12/1
Kyle Larson #42 12/1
Paul Menard #27 12/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. #17 12/1
A.J. Allmendinger #47 20/1
Aric Almirola #43 20/1
Bobby Labonte #52 20/1
Brian Scott #33 20/1
Casey Mears #13 20/1
David Ragan #34 20/1
Landon Cassill #40 20/1
Marcos Ambrose #9 20/1
Trevor Bayne #21 20/1
Dave Blaney #77 30/1
David Gilliland #38 30/1
Justin Allgaier #51 30/1
Parker Kilgerman #30 30/1
Alex Bowman #23 40/1
Cole Whitt #26 40/1
Eric McClure #35 40/1
Joe Nemechek #87 40/1
Josh Wise #98 40/1
Michael Annett #7 40/1
Michael McDowell #95 40/1
Morgan Shepherd #93 40/1
Reed Sorenson #36 40/1
Ryan Truex #83 40/1
Terry Labonte #32 40/1

Head to Head Matchups

Not only can you wager on who you think will win the race, but you can bet on head-to-head matchups. It doesn’t matter what place the driver finishes, as long as he ends up ahead of his counterpart in the standings, you cash in your bet. Here’s a complete list of the head-to-head matchups available at this time.

Driver
Odds Driver Odds
Jimmie Johnson -115 vs Dale Earnhardt Jr -115
Jimmie Johnson -115 vs Kyle Busch -115
Jimmie Johnson -115 vs Kevin Harvick -115
Jimmie Johnson -115 vs Matt Kenseth -115
Dale Earnhardt Jr -115 vs Kyle Busch -115
Dale Earnhardt Jr -115 vs Kevin Harvick -115
Tony Stewart -115 vs Denny Hamlin -115
Denny Hamlin -115 vs Jeff Gordon -115
Denny Hamlin -115 vs Brad Keselowski -115
Brad Keselowski -130 vs Carl Edwards +100
Kyle Busch -130 vs Kurt Busch +100
Joey Logano -115 vs Ryan Newman -115
Martin Truex Jr -115 vs Greg Biffle -115
Austin Dillon -140 vs Ricky Stenhouse +110
Danica Patrick -115 vs Michael Waltrip -115
Kasey Kahne -115 vs Kurt Busch -115
Jeff Gordon -115 vs Clint Bowyer -115
Jeff Gordon -115 vs Tony Stewart -115

Daytona 500 Prop Bets

While it’s no where near the number of prop bets we recently saw on the Super Bowl, there are some interesting prop wagers you can make for the Daytona 500. As you can see below, it might be a good idea to narrow your predictions on who will win the race to cars that have an even number below 23. On the other hand, I don’t hate the value on both the winning car to be odd or over 23.5.

I’m also leaning towards the OVER 7.5 in the number of caution flags. With the slight height increase on the spoiler, cars looked a lot more stable during Saturday’s Sprint Unlimited. This was a much-needed improvement over last year, where cars were slipping all over the place. Look for drivers to be a lot more confident when it comes to attempting a pass, which I believe will lead to a lot more wrecks.

Winning Car Number
Odd +195
Even -250

Winning Car Number
Over 23.5 (+120)
Under 23.5 (-150)

Total Caution Flags
Over/Under 7.5

Manufacturer of Winning Car
Chevy -125
Toyota +200
Ford +350

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
Connect with the author via: Twitter - Google+