Falcons Panthers Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd - Google+
The Carolina Panthers (3-9) host the Atlanta Falcons (11-1) Sunday at 1:00 PM ET in NFC South division action. Oddsmakers have listed the Falcons as a 3.5-point favorite and have set the total at 47.5.
Why Atlanta Covers
Of the Falcon’s 11 wins, eight have come by four points or more. It is also worth noting that Atlanta has had some of its most dominant performances on the road where it is 5-1 straight up and 4-1-1 against the spread this season. Four of its road wins have come by at least seven points and three of them have come by double digits.
The Panthers have really struggled at home where they are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in their last five. Each of these losses have come by at least four points.
Atlanta has had its way with Carolina in recent seasons. The Falcons have won each of the past five and seven of the last eight meetings. It is significant that Atlanta won the season’s first meeting since Carolina is 0-6 against the spread when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent over the the last three seasons. It has lost these games by an average score of 33.2 to 15.0.
In addition, the Panthers are 0-7 against the spread in home games following losses in five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons. They are also 1-10 against the spread in the second half of the season the last three seasons when playing against a team that has a winning record.
Why Carolina Covers
The Falcons won the season’s first meeting but only by two points. Plus, it is significant that Carolina gave up 30 points in that contest. That’s because it is on a 28-11 against the spread run when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 28 points or more.
The Falcons are one of the top offensive teams in the NFL, but the Panthers are on an impressive 12-3 against the spread run at home versus excellent offensive teams that average 375.0 yards or more per game. This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 9-1 against the spread if the game takes place in the second half of the season. Carolina has won these 10 games by an average score of 22.4 to 18.7.
The Falcons have already locked up the NFC South division, and they have three more wins than the next-closest teams in the NFC, so they could have trouble finding motivation this week. This is also a problematic spot for them since they are coming off an emotional win against the Saints that ended a four-game losing streak in the series. They held the Saints to just 13 points but are 0-6 against the spread in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
The Falcons are one of the top passing teams in the league as they have abandoned their once balanced attack for a pass-heavy scheme. However, they likely won’t get anything easy through the air against a Carolina defense that ranks eighth in the NFL against the pass with just 218.9 yards allowed per game.
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