Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
The 22nd-ranked Utah State Aggies (10-2) face off against the Toledo Rockets (9-3) Saturday, Dec. 15 at 4:30 PM ET in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, which takes place at Bronco Stadium in Boise, Idaho. Oddsmakers have listed Utah State as a 10.0-point favorite and have set the total at 58.0.
Why Utah State Covers
The Aggies enter this game with all kinds of momentum. They have won each of their last six games with these victories coming by an average of 26.8 points. Toledo, meanwhile, enters the postseason having dropped two of its last three.
Utah State was oh so close to recording a perfect regular season. Its two losses came by a combined five points, and one of those defeats – a two-point loss – came at Big Ten champion Wisconsin.
The Aggies were an awesome investment this season as they went 10-1-1 against the spread in all games. The Rockets started out the season as a good bet but finished on a 1-3 against the spread slide.
Utah State is the far superior defensive team. It ranks eighth in the country in scoring defense with 15.4 points allowed per game while Toledo ranks 59th with 27.3 points allowed per game. The Aggies rank 15th in total defense with 322.7 yards allowed per game while the Rockets rank 107th with 463.2 yards allowed per contest.
The Toledo defense will have its hands full against a good Utah State offense that ranks 26th in the nation in total offense with 460.7 yards per game and 36th in scoring with 34.4 points per game.
The Aggies are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games versus a team that has a winning record. Plus, they are 12-4 against the spread under coach Gary Andersen in all games versus teams that have a winning mark.
Why Toledo Covers
The Rockets haven’t lost a game by more than seven points all season. They lost by seven to Arizona, Ball State and Northern Illinois. Each of these three are bowl teams.
Toledo has been a sensational investment when catching points. The Rockets are a perfect 5-0 against the spread in the underdog role this season. It is also worth noting that they are a perfect 6-0 against the spread as an underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 points over the last three seasons. They have actually won by an average score of 30.0 to 22.5 in these games.
The Toledo defense has given up a lot of yards, but it has also forced a lot of turnovers. This opportunistic unit has been a major part of the team’s success this season. The Rockets have forced 25 turnovers and have committed only 18. They should be able to come up with some big plays against a Utah State squad that has not been immune to coughing it up. The Aggies have committed 19 turnovers and have come up with only 18. The Team that wins the turnover battle often has an excellent opportunity to win the game.
The Toledo offense has given teams trouble all season. It ranks 39th in scoring with 32.9 points per game and 28th in total offense with 456.1 yards per game.
I have picked Utah State as the straight up winner of this game. Check out this page for the rest of my bowl predictions. Be sure to check out who Brandon Lee, Vegas Top Cappers, Ryan James, and Jack Jones have picked to win the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl as well.