Georgia at Auburn Spread
Posted by Steve Janus - Google+
This Saturday the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs will look to secure the SEC West top spot when they go on the road to take on the Auburn Tigers. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 EST at Jordan-Hare Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN2. Oddsmakers have listed Georgia as a 15-point road favorite with the total posted at 53 points.
Why Georgia Will Cover
The Bulldogs have every reason to show up and lay everything on the line in this game. With a win over Auburn they would lock up a spot in the SEC Championship Game against No. 1 Alabama. Considering how bad Auburn has looked in most of their games, that’s reason enough to believe Georgia can cover this large spread.
Georgia should have a huge advantage on both sides of the ball. Auburn comes into this game with the 116th worst offense in the entire country, averaging just 305.2 total yards/game. Georgia’s defense ranks 31st, only giving up 341.4 ypg, but have been even better than that the last couple of weeks. They held Florida to just 267 yards and forced six turnovers and last week only allowed 232 yards and created three turnovers against Ole Miss.
Offensively, the Bulldogs feature one of the most explosive units in college football. They are extremely well-balanced. Georgia is averaging just under 190.0 ypg on the ground and another 280.0 ypg through the air. It allows them to take advantage of whatever the defense gives them, and the Tigers figure to give them a lot of opportunities. Auburn is 93rd in the country against the run (199.2 ypg) and 52nd against the pass (229.4 ypg).
A lot of people are going to look back at Georgia’s poor showing on the road against Kentucky and get the idea that they might lay another egg this weekend. History tells us that was more of a fluke than anything, and it really wasn’t all that surprising considering they were likely looking ahead to that huge showdown against Florida and just coming off a big game against South Carolina. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS over their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Why Auburn Will Cover
There’s no denying the fact that this has been an extremely difficult season for Auburn. With just two wins on the season and only three games left to play, the Tigers have no chance of playing in a bowl game. While it might seem like a perfect spot to fade Auburn, I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see this team play inspired football on Saturday. While they still have a showdown with Alabama on Nov. 24, this is the game I think the Tigers will do whatever it takes to win.
The key here is that this game is so important to Georgia. Auburn would love nothing more than to inflict some of the pain they have had to deal with this year by ruining the Bulldogs hopes of returning to the SEC title game. You also have to factor in the pressure that will be on Georgia in this game. It’s extremely common to see teams lose these games that have so much riding on them late in the year.
While LSU doesn’t have the offensive talent that Georgia possess, the fact that Auburn only loss by a final of 10-12 at home is certainly something to make you believe they can at least keep this game close. The fact that oddsmakers set the at 15 in a game where they know the public is going to be riding Georgia hard, makes me think they think the Tigers have a really good shot at losing by 14 or less. Auburn is an impressive 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a winning road record, so it’s not like its uncommon for the Tigers to step up in this situation.
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