Georgia Tech at Georgia Line
Posted by Jimmy Boyd - Google+
The third-ranked Georgia Bulldogs (10-1) host the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-5) Saturday at 12:00 PM ET in non-conference action. Oddsmakers have listed Georgia as a 13.0-point favorite and have set the total at 64.5.
Why Georgia Covers
The Bulldogs have won five in a row by an average of 21.8 points, and we can expect no letdown from them this week with a spot in the BCS Championship still in the cards.
Georgia has been dominant at home where it is 6-0 on the season with an average winning margin of 28.0 points.
The Dawgs have owned their in-state rivals. They have won each of the past three meetings, including a 31-17 victory at Georgia Tech last season. Looking back further, Georgia has won 10 of the last 11 meetings.
Georgia has gotten the job done on offense. It ranks 21st in the nation in scoring with 37.6 points per game and 25th in total offense with 471.5 yards per game. Its balance makes it tough to defend. The Bulldogs average 193.3 yards per game on the ground and 278.2 yards per game through the air.
The air attack figures to give the Yellow Jackets problems as they rank 89th in the country against the pass with 251.0 yards allowed per game. Aaron Murray, who has completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 2,978 yards with 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions, has to be licking his chops after completing 19 of 29 throws for 252 yards with four touchdowns and an interceptions in last season’s meeting.
The offense has been good, but the defense has been even better. The Dawgs rank 18th in the country in scoring defense with 18.4 points allowed per game and 20th in total defense with 329.8 yards allowed per game.
Why Georgia Tech Covers
The Yellow Jackets are playing with a lot of confidence right now. They have rebounded from a 3-5 start by winning each of their last three games both straight up and against the spread.
Georgia Tech has been a solid investment, especially on the road. It is 7-4 against the spread on the season, including 3-1 against the run in road games.
The numbers show that teams headed up by Paul Johnson are a force to be reckoned with on the road. His teams are 35-17 against the spread all-time in road games, including 21-9 against the spread if catching points.
It is significant that Georgia Tech checks in off a 42-24 victory against Duke and that it outgained the Blue Devils 330-77 on the ground. Consider that Johnson’s teams are 16-6 against the spread in road games following a win by 17 points or more and 19-7 against the spread in road contests after out-rushing an opponent by 200 yards or more.
Georgia Tech’s running game is no joke. It ranks third in the country with 324.9 yards per game. It should be able to run the football very effectively against a Georgia defense that has been at its worst against the run.
The Bulldogs rank 51st in the nation in run defense with 151.0 yards allowed per game and have had plenty of trouble slowing down Georgia Tech’s rushing attack in recent years.
The Yellow Jackets have averaged 317.0 rushing yards in the last four meetings. They are 1-3 in these games but lost just one of them by more than 13 points.
The road team is 12-3-1 against the spread in the last 16 meetings.
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