The New York Giants are still looking for their first win of the season, and it will not come easy this weekend when they take on the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. With the exception of last weekends shutout by Carolina, the Giants have moved the ball well on offense. They have been plagued by turnovers, and hope to change that coming into this weeks matchup. The Chiefs have yet to turn the ball over, and that has allowed them to win three consecutive games to open the season. They dominated the Jaguars in the season opener, and the defense held both the Cowboys and Eagles in check during weeks two and three.
Kick-off takes place at 1:00 PM ET this Sunday with regional television coverage provided by FOX. Oddsmakers have Kansas City’s early season success continuing, favoring the Chiefs by 4.5-points over the Giants. The total has been set at 44-points.
Why New York Covers
The Giant’s offensive numbers are a bit misleading after getting shutout by the Panthers last week. If not for that game, New York would be averaging 27 points per game. New York’s 0-3 start has come mainly due to turnover issues by the offense. It is an area where the Giants are improving after opening the season with six turnovers against the Cowboys. In week two they had four turnovers against Denver, and last week had three against the Panthers. I think New York will continue to improve on their turnover issues and the offense should get back on track this week after a horrible performance against Carolina.
The New York Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record.
You can’t blame the defense for all of the trouble on this Giants team. With all the turnovers by the offense, the defensive unit is hardly getting time to rest between drives. This week they face a Chiefs offense that runs a very balanced offensive attack. They are not a big threat when throwing the ball, averaging just 206 yards per game through the air. If the offense can avoid turning the ball over like they have in past weeks, I expect the Giants defense to improve against the run. Through the first three weeks of the season they have given up an average of 130 yards per game.
Why Kansas City Covers
The Chiefs offense may not be lighting up any scoreboards this year, but they are playing well enough to lead the Chiefs to a 3-0 start. They are averaging 23.7 points per game, gaining 4.2 yards per carry on the ground. Their passing game has been mediocre, but they have done a great job of avoiding turnovers. Alex Smith has four touchdowns, but has yet to throw an interception this season. The Chiefs have also avoided fumbles, an area that plagued them last season when they finished with a -24 turnover margin.
In head-to-head games between these teams the favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Kansas City’s defense has held opponents to just 11.3 points per game. They have faced two of the league’s best offense, holding both the Cowboys and Eagles to just 16 points. The secondary has been amazing, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 54.9% completion rate and 186 yards per game. The run defense has been the biggest weakness for Kansas City, giving up 123 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry. That should be a non-issue this week against a Giants team that is averaging just 44 yards per game on the ground.
I think the Chiefs are definitely one of this years most improved teams, but I can’t see the Giant’s turnover problems continuing like they have and I expect them to pull off an upset this week. They have too many talented players for the Chiefs to defend, and I like a team getting points when they are lead by a two time Super Bowl champion under center.
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