Green Bay Packers Predictions

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The Packers won the NFC North with an overall record of 11-5, earning them a spot in the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season. Green Back would open up the postseason with an impressive 24-10 win over division rival Minnesota, but were dominated by Collin Kaepernick and the 49ers (31-45) in the Divisional Round. For most teams it would have been considered a pretty successful season, but with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback it’s Super Bowl or bust every year.

The Packers got off to a sluggish 2-3 start in 2012, but would close out strong with a 9-2 run over their final 11 games. While the defense made major improvements last year, the Green Bay offense took a surprising step backwards. They went from scoring an NFL-best 35.0 points per game to averaging a modest 27.1 and the total yards per game dropped from 405.1 in 2011 to 359.4.

Last Season
NFC North
Record
ATS Record
Home ATS
Road ATS
Over/Under
1st
11-5
9-7
5-3
4-4
8-8
Offense Rank
Defense Rank
Turnover Margin
Points For
Points Against
13th
11th
+7
27.1
21.0
2013 Roster Changes
Draft Picks
DE/DT Datone Jones, RB Eddie Lacy, OT/G David Bakhtiari, G/OT J.C. Tretter, RB Johnathan Franklin, CB/S Micah Hyde
Additions
TE Matthew Mulligan
Losses
RB Cedric Benson, RB Ryan Grant, WR Greg Jennings, WR Donald Driver, TE Tom Crabtree, C Jeff Saturday, DE/OLB Erik Walden, DE/OLB Frank Zombo, ILB Desmond Bishop, S Charles Woodson.
Key Numbers for 2013
Draft Grade
Preseason Power Ranking
Strength of Schedule
B
6th
2.96
6th
Head Coach Mike McCarthy
*Records for regular season only.
Overall
ATS
Home
Home ATS
Road
Road ATS
74-38
67-43-2
42-14
33-21-2
32-24
34-22
Off of a Bye
Off of a Bye ATS
Off of a Loss
Off of a Loss ATS
6-1
7-0
23-14
22-13-2
Schedule
2013 Green Bay Packers Schedule
Date Opponent
Spread (Est.)
Win Chance
9/8 @ 49ers
+4
0.34
9/15 Redskins
-4.5
0.67
9/22 @ Bengals
PK
0.50
Week 4 BYE
10/6 Lions
-4.5
0.67
10/13 @ Ravens
+1
0.49
10/20 Browns
-7.5
0.78
10/27 @ Vikings
-1
0.51
11/4 Bears
-4
0.66
11/10 Eagles
-7
0.75
11/17 @ Giants
PK
0.50
11/24 Vikings
-4.5
0.67
12/28 @ Lions
-1.5
0.53
12/8 Falcons
-3
0.59
12/15 @ Cowboys
-1
0.51
12/22 Steelers
-3
0.59
12/29 @ Bears
+3
0.41
Estimated Wins: 9.17

The Packers have been dealt a difficult schedule in 2013. It was already going to be hard enough with the NFC North having to play both the AFC North and NFC East, but due to winning the division last year they must also play the 49ers and Falcons.

While most experts would consider Green Bay a legit Super Bowl contender, we will have a much better idea of just where this team stands in the NFC when they go on the road to face San Francisco in Week 1. It’s the second straight season that these two teams will square off in the opener. Last year the 49ers went into Lambeau Field and knocked off the Packers 30-22.

That road game at San Francisco is just the beginning of what appears to be a very difficult schedule away from home. On top of their three division road games, the Packers must travel to take on the Bengals, Ravens Giants and Cowboys. Their only matchup on the road all season against a team who finished with a losing record in 2012 is a Week 13 game at Detroit. Green Bay is an impressive eight games over .500 on the road under McCarthy, but simply going 4-4 would be quite an accomplishment given the circumstances.

Due to that challenging schedule on the road, it’s going to be extremely important that the Packers take care of business at home. They do have a couple of favorable matchups against the Eagles and Browns outside the division, but will be put to the test at home by both Washington and Pittsburgh.

Odds
Regular Season Win Total
to Win the NFC
to Win Super Bowl XLVIII
10.5
6 to 1
12 to 1
Odds Courtesty of Bovada
Predictions

It’s no secret that the NFL is a quarterback driven league right now. Luckily for the Packers, they not only have the best quarterback in the NFC North, but one of the elite ones in the game today. Assuming Rodgers is going to stay healthy, I just don’t see how you can pick any other team to win the division than Green Bay. Sure the schedule isn’t easy, but it’s nothing the Packers can’t overcome.

Unlike other organizations that look to revamp their roster with trades or big free agent signings, the Packers continue to look to build through the draft. The only free agent pickup during the offseason was tight end Matthew Mulligan, who isn’t even a lock to make the 53-man roster. Green Bay did suffer some noticeable losses that included wide out Greg Jennings, defensive back Charles Woodson, and linebacker Desmond Bishop.

Part of the Packers’ problem offensively last season was that teams were sitting back in zone, daring them to run the football, and they weren’t able to take advantage. They feel like, with the addition of rookie running backs Eddie Lacey and Johnathan Franklin, that is going to change in 2013. While Jennings will be missed, Rodgers still has a talented group of receivers to throw the ball to in James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley. After giving up a staggering 51 sacks last season, McCarthy decided it was time for a change. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga and right guard Josh Sitton will be flip-flopping with left tackle Marshall Newhouse and left guard T.J. Lang.

As for the defense, Green Bay used their first round pick on 3-4 defensive end Datone Jones out of UCLA to help them against mobile quarterbacks, and he is expected to start right away alongside B.J Raji and Ryan Pickett. The rest of the defense will look very similar to what we saw in 2012. Losing Bishop and Woodson isn’t really a big deal. Bishop missed all of last year with a torn hamstring and Woodson played in just seven games. The key for this unit is getting more out of young players like outside linebacker Nick Perry, corner Casey Hayward and defensive lineman Mike Daniels.

Projections
NFC North Finish
Division Record
Overall Record
Win Total Prediction
1st
4-2
10-6
Under 10.5
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About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
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