Heart of Dallas Bowl Odds
This season’s Heart of Dallas Bowl pits the Purdue Boilermakers against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Game time is set for 12:00 PM ET on New Year’s Day at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas. The latest odds list the Cowboys as 16.5-point favorites, while the over/under is set for 70 points.
Why Purdue Covers the Spread
This is a huge spread, even for this talent gap. In fact, double-digit underdogs in bowl games have been a rather profitable blind-bet over the years, going 47-40 against the spread (54%) since 1989. The Boilermakers were lucky to even make it to a bowl game this season at 6-6, let alone a New Year’s Day bowl, so their motivation for this game should be sky-high. Just to get here they had to win their last three games of the season, two on the road, so you have to like their momentum heading into this meeting.
Purdue doesn’t have any huge bright spots, but they don’t have a ton of weaknesses either. They were consistent offensively, averaging over 400 yards of total offense per game for 29.9 points per game during the regular season. On defense they were also solid, allowing 29 points per game on 381 yards per game. As I eluded to, these numbers certainly don’t wow you, but they aren’t the stats of a poor team, either.
In order to win this game the Boilermakers are going to have to have a great game on defense. I do not think they will be able to keep up in a shootout, so their best bet is to control the ball as much as possible and try to keep this potent Oklahoma State offense on the bench.
Why Oklahoma State Covers the Spread
Scoring is the Cowboy’s business, and business is good! Oklahoma State featured one of the most explosive offenses in the nation this year, posting a lofty 44.7 points per game on just under 550 yards of total offense per game. The Cowboys balanced their attack very well between the running game (215 yards per game) and the passing game (333 yards per game), making them one of the harder teams in the country to defend.
Overall defensively the Cowboys had numbers on par with Purdue (29 points allowed per game, 426 yards per game), but those number sky-rocketed away from home. Outside of Stillwater, this defense gave up a ridiculous 41.8 points per game on 523 yards per game. In order to win this game, they will need to limit the damage from Purdue, who may find it too easy to find the endzone.
As 16+ point favorites, the Cowboys can’t let the fact that they should win this game easily go to their heads. They have the better team on the field, but whether or not they take the Boilermakers seriously could be the difference between a win and a loss here. Fortunately, they should be able to walk away with a victory with even an average offensive day by their standards, however, if they think they can just walk in unprepared and win this game, they could be in for a shock!
For my outright winner, it should come as no surprise that I’ve selected Oklahoma State. Visit this page to see who I’m taking in all of the other bowls this season. You can also check out Jack Jones, Vegas Top Cappers, and Brandon Lee to view more experts’ perspectives on the Heart of Dallas Bowl.