Jags Texans Odds
The Houston Texans (8-1) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) Sunday in AFC South division action. Oddsmakers have listed the Texans as a 15.0-point favorite and have set the total at 40.5.
Why Houston Covers
The Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL. They have lost six consecutive games by an average of 16.8 points. Four of these losses have come by 17 points or more.
Jacksonville ranks dead last in the league in both scoring and total offense with 14.1 points and 264.3 yards per game. It ranks 26th in both total and scoring defense with 389.1 yards and 27.3 points allowed per contest.
The Jacksonville offense is going to have trouble getting much of anything against a Houston defense that is one of the best in the NFL. The Texans rank second in total defense with 281.6 yards allowed per game and third in scoring defense with 15.9 points allowed per game.
Half of Houston’s wins have come by more than 15 points. One of these was a 27-7 victory at Jacksonville in Week 2. The Texans have won four in a row against the Jags and are 3-0-1 against the spread in these games.
The Texans have been a terrific investment. They are 19-7 against the spread dating back to the beginning of last season. They are 13-5 against the spread during this span when listed as the favorite.
It is also worth noting that Houston is on a 6-0 against the spread run at home against division opponents. It has won these games by an average of 15.3 points.
Why Jacksonville Covers
The Jags may have gotten beat handily in the season’s first meeting, but they have showed well in revenge spots. In fact, they are on a 12-3 against the spread run in road games when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. They have lost by an average of only 0.2 points in these games.
Houston’s defense is elite, but get this. The Jags are on a 15-5 against the spread run in road games against good defensive teams that give up 285.0 yards or less per game. They have lost these games by just 0.2 points on average.
The Jaguars have struggled defensively this season, but Houston often doesn’t take advantage against poor defensive teams. In fact, it is on a 4-14 against the spread slide against teams that give up 27.0 points or more per game. They have lost by an average of 1.7 points in this situation. The Texans fall to 1-9 against the spread in the aforementioned situation if the games takes place in the second half of the season. They have lost by an average of 4.1 points in these 10 games.
Jacksonville is has been undervalued on the road where it is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season. It has covered the spread in five straight road games dating back to last season. The Jaguars are even on a 4-1-1 against the spread run in road games versus teams that have a winning mark at home.
The Texans won the first meeting big, but that typically hasn’t been the case. In fact, Jacksonville has either won or lost by 14 points or fewer in 10 of the last 12 meetings.