Jaguars Bills Odds
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off a big win over the Tennessee Titans, while the Buffalo Bills are coming off a disappointing loss to the Colts. Chad Henne has been the difference so far and he is getting rookie Justin Blackmon in the mix as well. On the Bills side of the ball, Chan Gailey has finally realized who he should have running the ball for him. C.J. Spiller has more touches than Fred Jackson, who is the better blocker. With Spiller getting the most touches in that backfield, it gives the Bills a better chance of winning. Right now the spread for this game is the Bills -6 with the Total set at 45.
Reasons why the Jags should cover:
As stated above, this team is playing much better with Chan Henne under center. Against the Texans he carried the team to a disappointing overtime loss. In that game he threw for 354 yards on 16-33 throwing with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Justin Blackmon who was supposed to be a big lift to this team this season, had 7 receptions for 236 yards and 1 touchdown. Last week against the Titans both of these guys were still successful. Henne threw for 261 yards on 17-26 passing with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Blackmon had 5 catches for 62 yards and a touchdown.
The big surprise for this team has been the play of Cecil Shorts III. He really made himself known in week 7 when he was targeted 10 times, had 4 receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown. Since then (5 games) he has been targeted 43 times with 24 catches, 463 yards and 3 touchdowns. If Henne would have been under center most of the season, who knows where this team would be.
Looking at the match up the Jags should have success on the offensive side of the ball again. This Bills defense is bad as they rank 18th against the pass (233 yards/game) and 31st against the run (147 yards/game). So far on the road that Jags are averaging 24 pts/gm, but are giving up 27.2 pts/gm. The Jags are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and are also 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. They are also 1-5-1 ATS in their alst 7 games following a straight up win.
Reasons why the Bills should cover:
This team has been real disappointment this season. They have a high powered offense, that you don’t use correctly. This defense should be better than they are but they just give up to many points. This team is ranked 25th in passing and 7th in rushing. Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to do a better job when throwing through the air. They should be better than 25th in the league in passing. Fitz has thrown the ball for 2,359 yards on 219 of 356 passing and for 18 touchdowns. C.J. Spiller has been the bright spot for this Bills offense running the ball for 830 yards on just 123 carries.
On the defensive side of the ball, they may be considered one of the worst defenses in the league right now. Their giving up 29 pts/game and 380.5 yds/game. This offense has been pretty good, but their defense just isn’t helping. They looked good 2 weeks ago on Thursday Night Football when they beat the Miami Dolphins 19-14, but that is only the 2nd time this season they have given up less than 20 points. In both of those games, the offense was only able to put up 19 points.
In order for this team to be successful they need to put the ball into Spiller’s hands. He is explosive and can run wild. This Jags D is bad against the run giving up 135 yds/game. Give Spiller the ball, get the win! The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 homes games vs. a team with a losing road record.
This game is really going to come down to coaching. Do the Jags let Henne throw the ball enough? Do the Bills give C.J. Spiller the ball enough? How well does the Bills defensive coordinator manage the game? We will see on Sunday! Also a big note, it doesn’t look like the Jags will have MJD back this week.