Kansas State Oklahoma Odds
The Oklahoma Sooners have an 8-2 overall record, with both of those losses coming in Big 12 play. Their 5-2 Big 12 record ranks them fourth in the conference standings. The Sooners lost to Texas in an embarrassing performance back in October this season. Two weeks ago they also suffered a tough loss to the Big 12′s best, Baylor. Following the loss to the Bears, Oklahoma responded by dominating the Iowa State Cyclones on their home field in a 48-10 blowout. They will need to keep that momentum alive this week when they are on the road against Kansas State.
The Kansas State Wildcats had a slow start to their season losing four of their first six games. They have since won four straight, including a dominating performance on the road against Texas Tech. They were within 10 points against Baylor, and lost by four points to Oklahoma State. They are clearly a much better team than their record indicates, and have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
Kick-off takes place this Saturday at 12:00 PM ET with television coverage being provided by FOX Sports 1. The oddsmakers have given favor to the Wildcats, listing them as 3.5-point home favorites over the Sooners.
Why Oklahoma Covers
The Oklahoma Sooners have averaged 30.8 points per game this season. They are a very run biased team, averaging 44 carries to just 28 pass attempts this season. The ground attack has been extremely successful, accumulating an average of 236 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry. They have also done a good job when throwing the ball. The Sooners are completing 57.2% of their pass attempts for 188 yards per game. The offense has put up a total of 424 yards per game, giving them a 16 yard edge over the Wildcats.
You should play on road underdogs like Oklahoma when they are averaging 5.25 yards per carry or more when they gained six or more yards per carry in their previous game. This system is 30-12 ATS over the last five seasons.
The Sooners defense has been hard to score on. They played a great first half against Baylor two weeks ago, and held Iowa State to just 10 points last week. They are giving up an average of 20.1 points per game, which is impressive considering their opponents offensive average is 29.1 points per game. The secondary has played extremely well this year, especially when playing on the road. They are allowing a 46.5% pass completion rate for 128 yards in their four road games this season. The run defense could stand to improve, allowing 144 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry, but they have faced several run biased teams, so those numbers are actually better than they appear.
Why Kansas State Covers
Kansas State may not accumulate as much total yardage as the Sooners, but they are doing more scoring off their lower yardage numbers. The Wildcats are averaging 33.9 points per game this season, and when playing at home they get a small boost to 34.3 point per game. The ground attack has accumulated an average of 198 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry at home this season. The Wildcats are also a strong passing team completing 63.1% of their attempts this season for 214 yards per game. When playing at home they average 426 total yards on offense.
Kansas State is 12-3 ATS over the last two seasons when facing a conference opponent.
The Wildcats have one of the most underrated defenses in the Big 12. They are the only team that has been able to hold Baylor under 40 points this season, and they are one of two teams to hold the Bears under 50 points. Kansas State has allowed an average of 20.4 points per game at home this year. The run defense has played well, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry for 136 rushing yards per game in their seven home games this season. The secondary has also performed well. They are allowing a somewhat concerning completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, but have limited the yardage to a mere 218 passing yards per game in home games.
Kansas State should have no problem picking up a win over the Sooners this week. Oklahoma is one of the most overrated teams in the conference, and Kansas State has quickly turned their season around. Home field advantage will be huge for the Wildcats, and I expect the Sooners to struggle to find the endzone in this game. The Wildcats offense should have no problem putting up a big number on Oklahoma. The Sooners are allowing 29.2 points per game on the road, and they are 1-3 ATS in their four road games this season. Lay the points with the home team today.