LSU at Arkansas Spread
Posted by Steve Janus - Google+
This Friday the No. 7 LSU Tigers will go on the road to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in the regular season finale for both schools. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 EST at Razorback Stadium and will be televised nationally on CBS. Oddsmakers have listed the Razorbacks as a 12-point home underdog with the total posted at 51 points.
Why LSU Will Cover
The Tigers escaped a shootout against Ole Miss with a 41-35 home win, but came no where close to covering the 19-point spread. The fact that they failed to cover the spread by 13-points is a big reason why LSU is laying less than two touchdowns. The Tigers come into this game with a 9-2 overall record and 5-2 mark inside the conference.
I don’t think there is any doubt they can go on the road and knock off the Razorbacks by at least 13 points. LSU defeated Arkansas by a final of 41-17 last year. While the Tigers aren’t quite on the same level as they were a year ago, Arkansas has suffered a major drop off.
The Razorbacks only two conference wins came against Auburn and Kentucky. They just lost at Mississippi State by a final of 14-45. It was the fourth time this season they lost to an SEC opponent by at least 18-points. The big key here is that Arkansas has nothing but pride to play for in this game. Win or lose their season ends on Friday. I have a hard time believing the Razorbacks will simply turn on a switch and show up to play against a team like LSU. I believe there’s a better chance they throw in the towel and look forward to this season being over instead of putting the time into practice this week to play competitive football.
That’s the big difference between Ole Miss and Arkansas. The Rebels are trying to establish an identity in the conference under first year head coach Huge Freeze. The Razorbacks program has been a complete mess ever since they fired Bobby Petrino. The matchups on both sides of the ball favor LSU.
Why Arkansas Will Cover
The only real factor you can play with Arkansas is the fact that this is their one last chance to put together a real positive performance to build off for next year. The Razorbacks have won a total of four games this season and their most impressive win to date is a 24-7 road win against Auburn, who hasn’t won a single conference game. If the Razorbacks don’t come out and lay everything on the line to try an upset a top-ranked LSU team, they have no chance in this game.
There is at least some reason to believe that the Razorbacks will show up for this game and keep it competitive. In Arkansas last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record, they are a dominant 10-2 ATS. You also have to take into consideration that LSU might not take this game all that seriously given how bad the Razorbacks just lost to a Mississippi State team they beat by 20-points a couple weeks ago. The Tigers really can’t gain a whole lot with a win in this game. Not that I think they will lose, but they might do just enough to get the win.
The line movement is also very interesting if you are considering playing on Arkansas. LSU opened as a 12.5-point favorite. With nearly 70% of the public action coming in on the Tigers you would expect this line to move closer to 14 points, but it instead dropped down to 12.
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