Military Bowl Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd - Google+
The 24th-ranked San Jose State Spartans (10-2) are set to do battle with the Bowling Green Falcons (8-4) Thursday, Dec. 27 at 3:00 PM ET in the Military Bowl, which will take place at RFK Stadium in Washington D.C. Oddsmakers have listed San Jose State as a seven-point favorite and have set the total at 47.0.
Why San Jose State Covers
What a season it has been for San Jose State. A year after winning just five games, the Spartans are 10-2 and dangerously close to being 11-1. They lost to Pac-12 Champion Stanford by only three points.
In addition to its superb straight up record, San Jose State has also been a phenomenal investment against the spread. The Spartans are 10-2 against the number in all games this season, including a perfect 6-0 against the spread versus non-conference opponents. They have won these six by an average of 11.9 points.
San Jose State has not been fazed on the road this season so playing this one clear across the country is no concern. The Spartans are 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against the spread when playing away from home with the lone loss coming to Stanford.
San Jose State is the far superior offensive team. It ranks 26th in the country in scoring with 35.2 points per game while Bowling Green ranks 93rd with 23.2 points per game. The Spartans rank 30th in total offense with 451.8 yards per game while the Falcons rank 87th with 373.9 yards per contest.
San Jose State has been a better investment against quality opponents. It is on an 8-1 against the spread run versus teams that have a winning record while Bowling Green is on a 4-11-1 against the spread slide versus such opponents.
It is also worth noting that San Jose State is on an impressive 18-7 against the spread run as a favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 points.
Why Bowling Green Covers
Bowling Green weathered the storm after a 1-3 start and won seven of its final eight regular-season games both straight up and against the spread. And it won these games with defense. It held seven of these opponents to 14 points or less and five of them to 10 points or less.
It is significant that the Falcons defeated Buffalo 21-7 in their regular-season finale. That’s because they are on a 13-4 against the spread run after giving up nine points or less in their last game. They have won by an average score of 29.6 to 23.3 in this situation.
Bowling Green ranks seventh in the nation in total defense, holding its opponents to 289.7 yards per game. It ranks ninth in scoring defense with 15.8 points allowed per contest. This defense poses some problems for a one-dimensional, pass-heavy San Jose State offense.
The Spartans average 327.4 yards per game through the air, but the Falcons rank seventh in the nation against the pass with just 173.0 yards allowed per game.
Bowling Green may also be catching San Jose State at the right time. The Spartans head into this game with a bittersweet feeling knowing head coach Mike MacIntyre has accepted the Colorado job. With as hot as San Jose State has been running, MacIntyre’s departure could definitely cool them off, even if he ends up coaching them in the bowl game.
I have picked San Jose State to win this game. Check out the rest of my bowl predictions on this page. Also, be sure to see who Jack Jones, Brandon Lee, Vegas Top Cappers and Carolina Sports have winning the Military Bowl.
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