New York Jets Predictions

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Things went from bad to worse for the Jets in 2012. After a disappointing 8-8 finish to the 2011 campaign, New York suffered their first losing season under head coach Rex Ryan with an overall record of 6-10. Watching this team play last year, you wouldn’t believe they are just two seasons removed from making back-to-back appearances in the AFC Championship Game.

Most of the blame from last year falls on quarterback Mark Sanchez, who seems to be getting worse and worse with each season. The Jets 180.7 passing yards/game was the third lowest mark of any team in the league. While the Jets receiving corps was pretty bad in 2012, there’s no excuse for Sanchez turning the football over 26 times (18 interceptions & 8 fumbles), especially when he was playing behind a pretty solid offensive line. It’s scary to think just how bad New York would have been had the defense not played at a very high level.

Last Season
AFC East
Record
ATS Record
Home ATS
Road ATS
Over/Under
T-3rd
6-10
7-9
3-5
4-4
7-9
Offense Rank
Defense Rank
Turnover Margin
Points For
Points Against
30th
8th
-14
17.6
23.4
2013 Roster Changes
Draft Picks
CB DeMarcus Milliner, DE/DT Sheldon Richardson, QB Geno Smith, G Brian Winters, OT Oday Aboushi
Additions
RB Chris Ivory, RB Mike Goodson, TE Kellen Winslow, G/OT Willie Colon, NT Antonio Garay, DE/OLB Antwan Barnes, S Dawan Landry.
Losses
QB Tim Tebow, RB Shonn Greene, WR Braylon Edwards, WR Chaz Schilens, TE Dustin Keller, TE Josh Baker, OT Jason Smith, G Brandon Moore, G Matt Slauson, DE/DT Mike DeVito, NT Sione Pouha, DE/OLB Bryan Thomas, ILB Bart Scott, CB Darrelle Revis, S LaRon Landry, S Yeremiah Bell, S Eric Smith.
Key Numbers for 2013
Draft Grade
Preseason Power Ranking
Strength of Schedule
B-
27th
1.865
19th
Head Coach Rex Ryan
*Records for regular season only.
Overall
ATS
Home
Home ATS
Road
Road ATS
34-30
31-32-1
18-14
15-17
16-16
16-15-1
Off of a Bye
Off of a Bye ATS
Off of a Loss
Off of a Loss ATS
1-3
1-3
13-16
13-16
Schedule
2013 New York Jets Schedule
Date Opponent
Spread (Est.)
Win Chance
9/8 Bucs
+1.5
0.47
9/12 @ Patriots
+8
0.21
9/22 Bills
-3.5
0.64
9/29 @ Titans
-1
0.51
10/7 @ Falcons
+7
0.25
10/13 Steelers
+1.5
0.47
10/20 Patriots
+4
0.34
10/27 @ Bengals
+4.5
0.33
11/3 Saints
+1.5
0.47
Week 10 BYE
11/17 @ Bills
+1.5
0.47
11/24 @ Ravens
+6
0.29
12/1 Dolphins
-1
0.51
12/8 Raiders
-6
0.71
12/15 @ Panthers
+3
0.41
12/22 Browns
-3
0.59
12/29 @ Dolphins
+4.5
0.33
Estimated Wins: 7.00

It’s going to be hard for the Jets to build any sort of momentum early in the season. While they have a couple of very winnable home games against the Buccaneers and Bills over their first three games, they are sandwiched around a huge road game against rival New England in Week 2. If they don’t take care of business at Metlife Stadium against Tampa Bay and Buffalo, things could get real ugly real quick in New York.

I don’t know that the Jets could have been dealt a much tougher stretch than they will face from Week 4 all the way up to the Week 10 bye. They follow up a back-to-back road set at Tennessee and Atlanta with two very difficult home games against the Steelers and Patriots, then have to go on the road to face Cincinnati before returning home to face the Saints. The only game in the bunch where the Jets are expected to be favored is at the Titans.

Considering the Jets still have to go on the road to face the Ravens and Panthers later in the season, they would almost have to go at least 5-4 prior to their bye to even have a chance at making the playoffs.

Odds
Regular Season Win Total
to Win the AFC
to Win Super Bowl XLVIII
6.5
40 to 1
100 to 1
Odds Courtesty of Bovada
Predictions

You can never completely count out a Rex Ryan defense, but it’s going to take a miracle for the Jets to field a competitive team in 2013. Their only hope of surprising is if rookie third-round quarterback Geno Smith has the same kind of impact that we saw last year with Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III. If Sanchez starts the majority of the games this season, the Jets have little to no chance of making the playoffs.

Regardless if it’s Sanchez or Smith, neither figures to have a very strong chance of succeeding. As bad as the receiving corps was in 2012, it could be even worse this year. Their only legit threat on the outside is Santonio Holmes and he’s coming off a Lisfranc injury that will likely have him sidelined throughout the preseason. They also get back talented but very raw wide out Stephen Hill, but he too is questionable for opening week as he’s having problems with a surgically repaired knee. On top of that the Jets lost starting tight end Dustin Keller.

While some would argue that the Jets shouldn’t start Smith right away even if it’s clear he’s their No. 1 quarterback, I think they have to see what he’s made of. If he fails and New York finishes with one of the worst records in the league, so what. Next year’s draft class is loaded at the quarterback position and it’s not like they used a first round pick on him.

After the defense didn’t really suffer from the loss of star cornerback Darrelle Revis in Week 3 of last year, new GM John Idzik decided it was in their best interest to trade the All-Pro to Tampa Bay for a couple of draft picks. The Jets used the first round pick they acquired from the Buccaneers on Missouri’s Sheldon Richardson, who is expected to start right away as defensive end. He will play opposite of emerging star Muhammad Wilkerson, while Kenrick Ellis and newcomer Antonio Garay figure to rotate at nose tackle.

At linebacker the Jets weren’t able to re-sign veteran Bart Scott and that leaves some major question marks at inside linebacker. While they get back David Harris, who led the team in tackles in 2012, I think he’s one of the more overrated players on the roster. The key will be whether Demario Davis is capable of filling in for Scott and playing at a high level. Lewis has compared Davis to Ray Lewis. On the outside things look a lot better, as big things are expected out of new outside linebacker Quentin Coples, who played primarily at defensive end last year.

New York filled Revis’ void in the secondary with their other first round pick on Alabama corner Dee Milliner. He will start opposite of the gifted Antonio Cromartie on the outside, allowing Kyle Wilson to move back to the slot. The big concern with the defensive backfield comes at safety, where the Jets were unable to bring back starters LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell. If the Jets don’t improve their pass rush, this unit could get exposed for big plays in 2013.

Projections
AFC East Finish
Division Record
Overall Record
Win Total Prediction
3rd
2-4
5-11
Under 6.5
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