NFL 10-Point Teasers

Posted by -

NFL 10-Point Teasers

With the popularity of NFL teasers on the rise, I thought it would be good to provide some research into just what the best odds are to tease up or down. You’ll find the line, the number of games in which the team (in each situation) landed on that number, the number of times since 1980 that a 10-point tease would have resulted in a cover, and the overall cover rate.  In this case we are looking at three-team 10-point teasers.

I researched every situation: home favorites, home underdogs, road favorites, and road underdogs. Then I pin-pointed each situation where teasing those numbers would have been profitable. Based on the typical odds for 10-point teasers (-140), you would need to hit at 81.70% in order to turn a profit. I’ve highlighted the numbers over that percentage for your convenience.

10-Point NFL Teasers

10-Point Teasers: Home Favorites 10-Point Teasers: Road Favorites 
Line  Games  10 Point Covers  Cover Rate  Line  Games  10 Point Covers  Cover Rate 
-1 143 105 73.43% -1 105 74 70.48%
-1.5 105 83 79.05% -1.5 95 68 71.58%
-2 168 138 82.14% -2 114 92 80.70%
-2.5 217 179 82.49% -2.5 158 116 73.42%
-3 533 422 79.17% -3 403 330 81.89%
-3.5 312 242 77.56% -3.5 174 142 81.61%
-4 220 174 79.09% -4 114 95 83.33%
-4.5 138 112 81.16% -4.5 76 59 77.63%
-5 139 102 73.38% -5 67 54 80.60%
-5.5 159 134 84.28% -5.5 58 51 87.93%
-6 207 166 80.19% -6 90 70 77.78%
-6.5 233 178 76.39% -6.5 79 60 75.95%
-7 306 234 76.47% -7 129 101 78.29%
-7.5 142 109 76.76% -7.5 45 34 75.56%
-8 138 113 81.88% -8 38 25 65.79%
-8.5 98 80 81.63% -8.5 28 22 78.57%
-9 123 98 79.67% -9 30 25 83.33%
-9.5 125 95 76.00% -9.5 37 29 78.38%
-10 129 103 79.84% -10 38 28 73.68%
-10.5 77 64 83.12% -10.5 19 16 84.21%
-11 62 54 87.10% -11 18 14 77.78%
-11.5 35 28 80.00% -11.5 10 8 80.00%
-12 46 39 84.78% -12 7 4 57.14%
-12.5 39 35 89.74% -12.5 4 2 50.00%
-13 57 42 73.68% -13 9 3 33.33%
-13.5 64 43 67.19% -13.5 4 3 75.00%
-14 53 39 73.58% -14 10 7 70.00%
-14.5 18 12 66.67% -14.5 2 2 100.00%
-15 15 11 73.33% -15 4 4 100.00%
10-Point Teasers: Home Underdogs  10-Point Teasers: Road Underdogs 
Line  Games  10 Point Covers  Cover Rate  Line  Games  10 Point Covers  Cover Rate 
+1 105 88 83.81% +1 143 113 79.02%
+1.5 95 81 85.26% +1.5 105 79 75.24%
+2 114 89 78.07% +2 168 135 80.36%
+2.5 158 133 84.18% +2.5 217 175 80.65%
+3 403 315 78.16% +3 533 407 76.36%
+3.5 174 142 81.61% +3.5 312 237 75.96%
+4 114 81 71.05% +4 220 178 80.91%
+4.5 76 59 77.63% +4.5 138 118 85.51%
+5 67 50 74.63% +5 139 113 81.29%
+5.5 58 45 77.59% +5.5 159 124 77.99%
+6 90 62 68.89% +6 207 154 74.40%
+6.5 79 61 77.22% +6.5 234 191 81.62%
+7 129 90 69.77% +7 306 219 71.57%
+7.5 45 32 71.11% +7.5 142 109 76.76%
+8 38 28 73.68% +8 138 103 74.64%
+8.5 28 18 64.29% +8.5 97 75 77.32%
+9 30 23 76.67% +9 123 94 76.42%
+9.5 37 33 89.19% +9.5 125 96 76.80%
+10 38 31 81.58% +10 129 93 72.09%
+10.5 19 16 84.21% +10.5 77 59 76.62%
+11 18 13 72.22% +11 62 40 64.52%
+11.5 10 9 90.00% +11.5 35 24 68.57%
+12 7 4 57.14% +12 46 31 67.39%
+12.5 4 4 100.00% +12.5 39 32 82.05%
+13 9 9 100.00% +13 57 40 70.18%
+13.5 4 4 100.00% +13.5 64 47 73.44%
+14 10 8 80.00% +14 53 36 67.92%
+14.5 2 2 100.00% +14.5 18 14 77.78%
+15 4 1 25.00% +15 15 13 86.67%

What you’ll find in the table is that there aren’t a ton of great situations for three-team 10-point teasers. As good as they may sound, you need to be selective. For example, notice that for home favorites, the numbers 2 through 3 are worth teasing. This makes sense right? Instead of a small home underdog, you tease down to +8 through +7, giving you a home underdog (that is actually favored in the game) of a touchdown or more. Use this table whenever you are thinking about betting a teaser to find out if the number you are getting is statistically worth teasing (see: profitable) or not.

NFL Teasers by Points

NFL Teasers by Situation

About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
Connect with the author via: Twitter - Google+