With the popularity of NFL teasers on the rise, I thought it would be good to provide some research into just what the best lines are to tease up or down.

I researched every situation: home favorites, home underdogs, road favorites, and road underdogs. Then I pin-pointed each situation where teasing those numbers would have been profitable using data from all regular season NFL games since 1980. Based on the typical odds for three-team 10-point teasers (-120), you would need to hit at 81.68% in order to turn a profit. I’ve highlighted the numbers over that percentage for your convenience.

Best 10-Point NFL Teasers (Favorites)
Line Home Away
-1 72.60% 71.15%
-1.5 79.65% 72.73%
-2 84.12% 80.87%
-2.5 83.26% 74.40%
-3 82.78% 83.54%
-3.5 77.14% 82.02%
-4 81.07% 81.82%
-4.5 81.43% 78.48%
-5 76.06% 80.88%
-5.5 85.03% 86.44%
-6 80.49% 79.57%
-6.5 77.73% 77.38%
-7 81.76% 84.17%
-7.5 76.81% 74.47%
-8 85.19% 65.85%
-8.5 80.00% 78.57%
-9 83.74% 83.87%
-9.5 77.42% 78.95%
-10 80.00% 76.32%
-10.5 82.28% 84.21%
-11 88.14% 77.78%
-11.5 80.56% 81.82%
-12 86.67% 71.43%
-12.5 90.24% 50.00%
-13 78.57% 42.86%
-13.5 67.69% 75.00%
-14 77.36% 77.78%
-14.5 64.71% 100.00%
-15 73.33% 100.00%
Best 10-Point NFL Teasers (Underdogs)
Line Home Away
+1 85.58% 80.00%
+1.5 84.85% 76.99%
+2 78.07% 80.00%
+2.5 83.93% 79.07%
+3 79.65% 78.72%
+3.5 80.90% 75.87%
+4 75.21% 86.14%
+4.5 78.48% 85.71%
+5 75.71% 82.76%
+5.5 77.97% 78.44%
+6 70.65% 76.70%
+6.5 77.38% 80.33%
+7 72.80% 72.52%
+7.5 72.34% 76.81%
+8 77.50% 75.74%
+8.5 64.29% 75.53%
+9 80.00% 77.24%
+9.5 86.84% 76.61%
+10 81.58% 74.02%
+10.5 84.21% 77.22%
+11 72.22% 70.18%
+11.5 90.91% 69.44%
+12 50.00% 69.77%
+12.5 100.00% 82.93%
+13 100.00% 73.68%
+13.5 100.00% 75.38%
+14 77.78% 77.55%
+14.5 100.00% 76.47%
+15 33.33% 92.86%

What you’ll find in the table is that there are actually quite a few great situations for three-team 10-point teasers. As good as they may sound, you need to be selective. For example, notice that for home favorites, the numbers 2 through 3 are worth teasing. This makes sense right? Instead of a small home favorite, you tease down to +8 through +7, giving you an underdog line of more than a touchdown for a team that is actually favored in the game.

Use this table whenever you are thinking about betting a teaser to find out if the number you are getting is statistically worth teasing (see: profitable) or not.

NFL Teasers by Points

NFL Teasers by Situation