NFL 10-Point Teasers

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NFL 10 Point Teasers

With the popularity of NFL teasers on the rise, I thought it would be good to provide some research into just what the best odds are to tease up or down. You’ll find the line, the number of games in which the team (in each situation) landed on that number, the number of times since 1980 that a 10-point tease would have resulted in a cover, and the overall cover rate.  In this case we are looking at three-team 10-point teasers.

I researched every situation: home favorites, home underdogs, road favorites, and road underdogs. Then I pin-pointed each situation where teasing those numbers would have been profitable. Based on the typical odds for 10-point teasers (-140), you would need to hit at 81.70% in order to turn a profit. I’ve highlighted the numbers over that percentage for your convenience.

10-Point NFL Teasers

Updated on 7-9-2014

Team Listed as a Favorite
Team Listed As an Underdog
Line
Home
Away
Line
Home
Away
-1 73.76% 71.00% +1 85.00% 80.00%
-1.5 79.81% 71.28% +1.5 86.17% 75.00%
-2 83.85% 80.53% +2 78.57% 82.10%
-2.5 83.17% 73.42% +2.5 84.18% 79.81%
-3 83.74% 84.16% +3 80.41% 78.28%
-3.5 78.07% 81.66% +3.5 81.66% 75.75%
-4 81.19% 84.82% +4 74.07% 85.86%
-4.5 81.34% 77.63% +4.5 77.63% 85.07%
-5 75.37% 83.08% +5 74.63% 81.75%
-5.5 84.52% 87.93% +5.5 77.59% 78.06%
-6 81.31% 78.65% +6 70.45% 76.38%
-6.5 77.09% 75.95% +6.5 77.22% 82.38%
-7 81.36% 84.48% +7 71.90% 74.04%
-7.5 76.64% 75.56% +7.5 71.11% 76.64%
-8 84.85% 65.79% +8 75.68% 75.19%
-8.5 80.22% 81.48% +8.5 62.96% 75.82%
-9 83.62% 83.33% +9 79.31% 78.45%
-9.5 77.12% 78.38% +9.5 89.19% 76.27%
-10 79.37% 75.68% +10 81.08% 73.17%
-10.5 82.67% 84.21% +10.5 84.21% 76.00%
-11 88.14% 77.78% +11 72.22% 70.18%
-11.5 80.00% 80.00% +11.5 90.00% 68.57%
-12 86.36% 66.67% +12 57.14% 69.05%
-12.5 89.74% 50.00% +12.5 100.00% 82.05%
-13 77.78% 42.86% +13 100.00% 72.73%
-13.5 66.67% 75.00% +13.5 100.00% 74.60%
-14 76.47% 77.78% +14 77.78% 76.60%
-14.5 64.71% 100.00% +14.5 100.00% 76.47%
-15 73.33% 100.00% +15 33.33% 92.86%
% Needed 81.70%

What you’ll find in the table is that there aren’t a ton of great situations for three-team 10-point teasers. As good as they may sound, you need to be selective. For example, notice that for home favorites, the numbers 2 through 3 are worth teasing. This makes sense right? Instead of a small home underdog, you tease down to +8 through +7, giving you a home underdog (that is actually favored in the game) of a touchdown or more.

Use this table whenever you are thinking about betting a teaser to find out if the number you are getting is statistically worth teasing (see: profitable) or not.

NFL Teasers by Points

NFL Teasers by Situation

About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
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