NFL Odds to Make the Playoffs
Posted by - Jimmy Boyd
Which teams sitting on the fringe of making the NFL playoffs have the best odds to actually make the post-season? Below you’ll find those teams and their odds both for and against making the playoffs. I’ve also provided my reasoning behind taking either the “Yes” or “No” bet on each team. As you already know, teams with the best “Yes” odds are the most likely to make the playoffs based on the current standings and remaining schedules. However, you also know that things in the NFL rarely pan out exactly how they are supposed to. Take a look at the odds listed below and see if there are any good value bets. Let me know in the comments if you see anything you like! Good luck!
*Odds Courtesy of Bovada
Odds to Make the 2012 NFL Playoffs
Chicago Bears (Yes -150, No +110)
You Should Bet “Yes” on the Bears Because: Chicago has the best pass defense in the league and if they can find a way to get past Green Bay at home this week they have a great chance to run the table with Arizona and Detroit left on the schedule. The Bears also have the second-best turnover margin in the NFL (+13).
You Should Bet “No” on the Bears Because: The Bears’ offensive line has given up 37 sacks this year – the sixth-highest number in the NFL. Jay Cutler also leaves something to be desired at the quarterback position with his 13 interceptions to 16 touchdown passes.
Washington Redskins (Yes +125, No -165)
You Should Bet “Yes” on the Redskins Because: With their remaining schedule they should get at least two and as many as three more wins. Cleveland and Philadelphia are both very winnable games and Dallas is a team they have already beaten, on the road, who they’ll now play at home for a potential playoff spot. The Redskins are also, surprisingly perhaps, a very good offensive team, averaging 386.7 yards per game (5th in the NFL) for 26.4 points per game (7th).
You Should Bet “No” on the Redskins Because: RG3 won’t be playing at 100%. You also must consider that while he has had plenty of success, he is still a rookie and it may be difficult to perform injured and under so much pressure. The Washington defense is also suspect, giving up 388.1 yards per game (5th-worst in the NFL).
Dallas Cowboys (Yes +170, No -250)
You Should Bet “Yes” on the Cowboys Because: With all of the gripes about Tony Romo, the Cowboys are 3rd in the NFL in passing yards with 3,799 and 4th in completion percentage at 66.8%. They also rank 2nd in the NFL in third down conversion rate, making 44.9% of their third down attempts.
You Should Bet “No” on the Cowboys Because: The Cowboys are a mess on a lot of fronts. They are the 2nd-most penalized team in the league (103) and they are the 2nd-worst team in turnover margin (-10). Neither of those sound like attributes of winning teams. I also don’t like their schedule to finish out the season. They face the Steelers and Saints at home before heading to Washington to finish out the season. They could easily walk away 0-3 in their final three weeks of the season.
Minnesota Vikings (Yes +700, No -1400)
You Should Bet “Yes” on the Vikings Because: Minnesota has the 3rd-most rushing yards in the NFL this season and the league’s best back in Adrian Peterson. The rest of the team, on both sides of the ball, fall into the middle of the pack statistically speaking, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing considering there isn’t a lot this team does poorly. You get the best value with the Vikings at +700 (though this unfortunately also means it is the least-likely scenario to play out).
You Should Bet “No” on the Vikings Because: The schedule doesn’t favor the Vikings at all with both the Texans and Packers remaining. Minnesota also isn’t guaranteed a spot in the playoffs even if they find a way to win out, which is why they are the long-shot of this group.
Seattle Seahawks (Yes -350, No +225)
You Should Bet “Yes” on the Seahawks Because: The Seahawks have a beast of a defense, ranking 2nd in the league in points allowed at just 15.5 per game and giving up just 301.7 total yards per game (3rd-best in the NFL). They also have a great running game behind the underrated Marshawn Lynch and the progression of quarterback Russell Wilson has been very impressive.
You Should Bet “No” on the Seahawks Because: While Seattle has some nice pieces on offense, they don’t score many points. At -350 there really isn’t a ton of value on the Seahawks because while it is likely that they will end up in a Wild Card spot, you are taking a pretty big risk at that number.