North Carolina at Virginia Line
The Virginia Cavaliers (4-6) host the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-4) Thursday night in ACC action. Oddsmakers have listed North Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite and have set the total at 60.0.
Why North Carolina Covers
Virginia has been a terrible investment this season. It is just 1-9 against the spread in its 10 games. It has especially been a bad investment at home where it is 0-6 against the spread on the season.
The Cavaliers defeated Miami 41-40 last week, but they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games following a win. The Tar Heels fell 68-50 to Georgia Tech last week, but they are 5-1 against the number in their last six games following a loss. It is also worth noting that they are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home.
North Carolina has had the upper hand in the series recently. It has won the past two meetings both straight up and against the spread. It won last season’s meeting 28-17 at home, and it won 44-10 the last time it visited Virginia.
North Carolina is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country. It ranks 10th in scoring with 40.5 points per game and 15th in total offense with 488.7 yards per game. Virginia, on the other hand, ranks 90th in scoring with 24.6 points per game and 48th in total offense with 419.1 yards per game.
The Cavaliers are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven conference games and 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games versus a team that has a winning record.
Why Virginia Covers
Virginia enters this contest with momentum on its side. It has ended a six-game losing streak with back-to-back victories.
The Tar Heels won four in a row from Sept. 22 to Oct. 13 but have lost two of three since. They are just 1-3 against the spread in their last four games.
North Carolina has struggled on the road where it is 1-3 this season. It is 0-5 against the spread in its last five road games dating back to last season. It is also on a 0-6 against the spread slide in road games after playing its last game at home. It has lost these six by an average score of 31.7 to 22.5.
The defensive side of the football has been a big issue for the Tar Heels lately. They have given up at least 33 points in each of their last three games. And, they rank 62nd in the country in total defense with 392.1 yards allowed per game while the Cavaliers rank 33nd with 349.1 yards allowed per contest.
The Tar Heels are 0-6 against the spread the last three seasons when giving up 400.0 to 450.0 yards in a game. They have lost these games by an average score of 31.7 to 21.2. This trend could be in play consider the Cavs average 419.1 yards of offense per game.
Virginia has dominated the Tar Heels on its home field. It has won nine of its last 10 home games in the series. The nine victories were by an average of 14.4 points.
The Cavaliers have covered the spread in 11 of the last 14 meetings overall and seven of the last eight meetings at home.