Notre Dame at Boston College Odds
Posted by Steve Janus - Google+
This Saturday the No. 4 ranked Notre Dame Fighting will go on the road to take on the Boston College Eagles in a huge rivalry matchup. Notre Dame has won three straight in the series after losing six straight. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 EST at Alumni Stadium and will be televised nationally on ABC. Oddsmakers have listed Boston College as a 19-point home underdog with the total posted at 47.5 points.
Why Notre Dame Will Cover
The Fighting Irish remained perfect on the season with a thrilling 29-26 triple-overtime win over Pittsburgh at home. Notre Dame is now 9-0 and right in the thick of things for a chance to play in the BCS National Championship Game.
A lot of people are going to look at Notre Dame’s results for the season and see that they have just two wins all season by more than 17-points. However, when you look at who they have played it really isn’t all that surprising. The game that I think will give us the best idea of what to expect on Saturday is Notre Dame’s 41-3 win over Miami back on Oct. 6. The Irish easily covered the 16.5-point spread in that game. Boston College lost to that same Hurricanes team 32-41 on their home field, giving me every reason to believe they can beat the Eagles by at least 20 points.
The big concern with Notre Dame covering a large spread like this is they don’t exactly have an explosive offense. The Fighting Irish are only averaging 26.7 ppg on the season and have only topped the 30 point mark twice. A lot of that is a result of the defenses they have played. Boston College hasn’t exactly offered a whole lot of resistance this season. The Eagles are giving up and average of 30.9 points and 487.4 total yards per game.
The key to Notre Dame all season has been their defense. The 26-points the Irish allowed to Pittsburgh last week was the most they have given up all season. Prior to that game they hadn’t allowed more than 14 points to a single opponent. If they show up to play and you have to think they will, Boston College might not score a single point. The Eagles are only averaging 22.1 ppg. The only defense they have played all season that compares to Notre Dame is Florida State and they managed just 7 points in a 44 point loss.
Why Boston College Will Cover
The Eagles are just 2-7 on the season and have won just one game inside the ACC. After breaking down both sides of the ball there really isn’t a lot you can say about Boston College in regards to them having any chance of winning this game. The thing that will get people to the Eagles is that this is a huge rivalry game and that it is being played in Chestnut Hill.
No matter who much better one team looks compared to the other on paper, you can’t underestimate the importance of a rivalry game. Boston College is going to treat this game like its the Super Bowl, as there really isn’t anything left to get excited about after this game. It’s also worth noting that Boston College has played much better at home than on the road. Most notably they lost by just 14-points to Clemson, who has been absolutely crushing teams of late.
You also look at previous games where the Eagles have played top level talent on their home field and it gives you reason to believe they cover the spread. Boston College is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Add in that Notre Dame is just 2-5-1 ATS over their last 7 games vs a team with a losing record and you can see why there is some value on the big home dog.
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