Oklahoma at Oklahoma State Line
This Saturday the No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners will host the No. 21 Oklahoma State Cowboys in a huge in-state rivalry matchup inside the Big 12 conference. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 EST at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Oddsmakers have listed the Sooners as a 7-point home favorite with the total posted at 72.5 points.
Why Oklahoma State Will Cover
The Cowboys come into this game off back-to-back blowout wins at home over West Virginia (55-34) and Texas Tech (59-21) to improve to 7-3 overall and 5-2 in conference play. They have won five of six overall with their only loss during that stretch a 14-point defeat at Kansas State. That two touchdown loss to the Wildcats might not seem like much, but they are the only team this season to have went into Manhattan and not get beat by 20+ points.
A lot of people seem to be overlooking the fact that the Cowboys embarrassed the Sooners the last time these two teams played. Oklahoma State beat then No. 13 Oklahoma 44-10 as a small 3-point favorite. Just one season later and we see the Cowboys getting 7-points. That’s a bit of a slap in the face if you ask me. I look for head coach Mike Gundy to have the troops ready to go in what should be a close game.
I have a hard time seeing Oklahoma’s defense slow down Oklahoma State’s high-powered offensive attack, especially after watching West Virginia put up 49 points on a ridiculous 778 yards of total offense. Oklahoma comes into this game with the 3rd ranked offense in the country, averaging 216.7 ypg on the ground and another 337.0 ypg through the air.
Oklahoma State is more than capable of beating Oklahoma outright in this contest, which really has them showing a ton of value as a 7-point dog. Oklahoma’s poor showing against West Virginia really sets up a good situation to back the Cowboys .The Sooners are 0-7 ATS at home after allowing at least 42 points in their last game since 1992.
Why Oklahoma Will Cover
The Sooners probably didn’t think their game against West Virginia mattered as much as it did. Oklahoma was able to escape with a 50-49 win to improve to 8-2 overall and 6-1 inside the conference.With Kansas State losing at Baylor they have a realistic shot at winning the conference and playing in a BCS Bowl. If the Sooners can win their final two conference games against Oklahoma State and TCU and get some help from Texas when they visit Manhattan on Dec. 1, they will win the Big 12 title.
There’s a good chance Oklahoma was looking past a West Virginia team that was really struggling to keep games competitive and focusing their attention on the Cowboys. It’s one thing to lose a rivalry game, but it really stings when you get beat as bad as the Sooners did last year in Stillwater.
The fact that oddsmakers opened up this game with Oklahoma favored by 8.5-points should tell you something. While the public has quickly bet that number down to 7, you have to think the oddsmakers were hoping for just that with the line they posted, especially after watching the Sooners struggle against the Mountaineers and their explosive offense.
Last week’s win over West Virginia was the first time this season the Sooners won a game by less than 9 points. Their only two losses have come against Kansas State and Notre Dame, who have combined to lose 1 game all year. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Oklahoma wins this game by more than a touchdown at home. You can’t ignore the fact that Oklahoma State lost at home to Texas 36-41. The same Longhorns team that the Sooners embarrassed 63-21.