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Oklahoma State Football Predictions

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While their 8-5 record from last season may not reflect it, this Oklahoma State Cowboys team was one of the best in the nation.  Their loss in week 2 to Arizona was a bit of an anomaly.  The Cowboys had a wealth of personal foul penalties and a 7-22 fourth quarter made the game seem like a blowout.  Three of their four remaining losses came against teams ranked in the top 15 and with the exception of the game against #2 ranked Kansas State, they were decided by a touchdown or less.

The Cowboys were +47.6 yards per game in Big 12 play last year.  They were the 8th pick in the bowls and ended up destroying Purdue in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.  The Cowboys accomplished all this despite being forced to rotate through three different quarterbacks due to injuries.  Clint Chelf won the starting spot and in 8 games last season he managed 1,588 yards and a 15-6 touchdown to interception ratio.

The Cowboys had one of the most difficult schedules in the nation in 2012 and with all of their top players returning for 2013 this team has high expectations.  Including their bowl game win, Oklahoma State had an average margin of victory at 34.625 points in their 8 wins.  With three of their five losses coming by a touchdown or less it is safe to assume the Cowboys will be a contender for the Big 12 title this season.

Last Season
Big 12
Record
ATS Record
Over/Under
Points For
Points Against
T-3rd
8-5
8-5
8-4
45.7
28.2
Key Numbers for 2013
Returning Starters
Returning to Offense
Returning to Defense
4 Year Recruiting Rank
Strength of Schedule
14
7
7
3.37
36th
17th
Head Coach Mike Gundy
Overall
ATS
Home
Home ATS
Road
Road ATS
67-35
57-39-4
40-13
31-18-2
21-20
21-18-2
Bowl Games
Bowl Games ATS
Off of a Bye
Off of a Bye ATS
Off of a Loss
Off of a Loss ATS
5-2
4-3
7-5
4-6-2
21-11
19-12-1
2013 Schedule
2013 Oklahoma State Cowboys Schedule
Date Opponent
Spread (Est.)
Win Chance
8/31 Mississippi St
-14
1
9/7 @ UTSA
-31
1
9/14 Lamar
-38
1
9/28 @ West Virginia
-11
.84
10/5 Kansas State
-9
.79
10/19 TCU
-10
.81
10/26 @ Iowa State
-14
1
11/2 @ Texas Tech
-14
1
11/9 Kansas
-29
1
11/16 @ Texas
+6.5
.29
11/23 Baylor
-11
.84
12/7 Oklahoma
-3
.60
Estimated Wins: 10.59

The Cowboys may have the 17th ranked most difficult schedule but according to the preseason odds they are favorites in every game except their road game against Texas.  They are a favorite by an average of 16.2 points in the 11 remaining games on the schedule.  With their soft non-conference schedule there is no reason the Cowboys will not be 3-0 to start the season.

When Big 12 play begins they should continue to run the table.  They are double digit favorites on the road against West Virginia, Iowa State and Texas Tech.  Their home games will come against Kansas State, TCU and Kansas with an average line favoring Oklahoma State by 16 points.

The game against Kansas should be an easy enough win that the Cowboys can look forward to the road matchup against the Longhorns.  They are 29 point favorites against the Jayhawks so getting the starters out early for rest should be a big benefit to this Cowboys team.  Texas on the other hand will travel back from West Virginia and with so many questions about the Texas defense I think Oklahoma State can pick up the upset victory.

Rest assured the Cowboys will not overlook Baylor again this season.  Last year the Bears squeaked off a seven point home win against Oklahoma State but this year the game will be played in Stillwater, OK.  The biggest challenge of the season should come in the final week when they face in-state rival Oklahoma.  Once again the Cowboys will be playing at home which is why preseason odds list Oklahoma State as a 3 point favorite.

Odds
Regular Season Win Total
Big 12 Championship Odds
National Championship Odds
10.5
2.5 to 1
33 to 1
Odds Courtesty of Bovada
Season Predictions

In 2010, the Oklahoma State Cowboys managed 11 wins and 1 loss.  That lone loss came in double overtime against the Iowa State Cyclones.  I expect this 2013 team to match that performance and possibly even improve on it.  They will have a new running back carrying the bulk of the load after Joseph Randle was taken in the fifth round of the NFL draft by the Dallas Cowboys.  Jeremy Smith is going to be taking over that roll and this senior should have no problems matching the numbers put up by Randle.  Smith had 1/4 of the carries that Randle did last season and he still amassed  371 yards and 8 touchdowns.  His 5.3 yards per carry was actually slightly better than the 5.2 from Randle.

With the exception of the game against Texas, the Cowboys will play their toughest games at home.  Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU and Kansas State will all struggle to beat Oklahoma State playing at Boone Pickens Stadium.  Four of their five games being played on the road will come against teams that are expected to finish towards the bottom of the Big 12.

The defense for the Cowboys should be improved over last season.  They return a defensive tackle tandem that is the best in the Big 12 with James Castleman and Calvin Barnett.  The two combined for 60 tackles with 12.5 of them coming for a loss and they had 2 sacks.  They will also have Justin Gilbert making his return to the team. Gilbert had 63 tackles on his own last season with 9 passes broken up.  They only place they are filling a void defensively comes at the defensive end position.  They brought in Sam Wren who was a junior college All-American last year and averaged 1.6 sacks per game.

2013 Projections
Big 12
Big 12 Record
Overall Record
Win Total Prediction
1st
9-0
12-0
OVER 10.5
Quick Take

I think OSU’s offense is going to be formidable again in 2013 — it’s become a bit of a formality at this point. One of the biggest things for me, strangely, is special teams. OSU has had a short history of elite kickers but is handing the reins to a freshman this year and, well, handing the kicking reins to a freshman scares me. The defense is (always) better than people think and if it can create turnovers like it did in 2011 OSU should be in the top three in the Big 12.

Kyle Porter | Pistols Firing Blog

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About the Author: Jimmy Boyd is known for his consistency. He's a proven winner in college and pro football, college and pro basketball and pro baseball. He finished as the No. 1 ranked MLB handicapper in 2007 by earning $1,000/game bettors $50,050. He also finished as the No. 1 ranked basketball handicapper in the 2008-09 season, profiting $1,000/game bettors 38,530. His basketball plays have banked $1,000/game bettors nearly $80,000 the last five years. Check out Jimmy's premium picks for tonight!
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