Oklahoma State Football Predictions

The Oklahoma State Cowboys recorded their 3rd double-digit win season in the last 4 years with a 10-3 campaign in 2013. The Cowboys had a legit shot to win the Big 12 title, but in a must-win situation fell 24-33 at home to Oklahoma in the final game of the regular season. The disappointment carried over to their bowl game, where they lost 31-41 to Missouri in the Cotton Bowl.

Head coach Mike Gundy will be entering his 10th season on the job in 2014 and looks to have a challenging task ahead of him. Oklahoma State has a league-low 8 returning starters (4 offense, 4 defense) and lose an amazing 32 lettermen. However, it is worth mentioning that in 2010 the Cowboys had an identical 8 starters coming back (24 lettermen lost) and managed to go 11-2.

Last Season
Big 12
ATS Record
Points For
Points Against
2014 Oklahoma State Cowboys Schedule
Date Opponent
Spread (Est.)
Win Chance
8/30 Florida State (Arlington)
9/6 Missouri State
9/13 UTSA
9/25 Texas Tech
10/4 Iowa State
10/11 @ Kansas
10/18 @ TCU
10/25 West Virginia
11/1 @ Kansas State
11/15 Texas
11/22 @ Baylor
12/6 @ Oklahoma
Estimated Wins: 7.39

There’s certainly reason to believe Oklahoma State could remain competitive in 2014, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The Cowboys get back junior quarterback J.W. Walsh, who started 5 games last year (8 career starts), their top running back, added to talented receivers and appear to be just as strong on the offensive line as they were in 2013. The concern comes on the defensive side of the ball, where Oklahoma State loses 8 of their 9 top tacklers from a unit that allowed just 21.6 ppg last season.

Adding to the concern on defense is the fact that Oklahoma State had an impressive 17.8 defensive yard per point in 2013, which means they only allowed 5.6 points for every 100 yards of offense they gave up. They posted a similar number in 2011 (17.1) and the next year they dropped to 14.9. Coincidently their win total went from 12 down to 8.

Another area of the game that suggest the Cowboys will be on the decline, is the +15 turnover margin they posted last year, which was tied for the 5th best mark in the country. Once again it compares to 2011, where they had a +21 turnover margin. The following season they broke even with a turnover margin of 0.

If the lack of experience coming back and expected regression in defensive ypp and turnovers wasn’t enough, Oklahoma State will have to overcome a harder schedule than 2013. For starters, the Cowboys have to open the season with a neutral site game against defending champ Florida State. They also go from playing 5 home games inside conference play to just 4. Oklahoma State will have to travel to face four of the top contenders in Oklahoma, Baylor, Kansas State and TCU.

Regular Season Win Total
Big 12 Championship Odds
National Championship Odds
13 to 1
150 to 1
Odds Courtesty of Bovada
Season Predictions

Even though Gundy has a history of exceeding expectations, I don’t think he’s got enough magic up his sleeves to get this team to be a legit contender in what looks to be a much stronger Big 12, especially with the schedule that they were dealt. I have Oklahoma State going 4-5 inside conference play, which based on my predictions has them finishing up in 6th. Add in a loss to Florida State in the opener and that leaves the Cowboys with an overall record of 6-6. Given their win total has been set at 7.5, it’s safe to say I recommend a play on the UNDER.

While I also think the Cowboys will be a strong team to fade against the spread, I’m well aware of what Gundy is capable of and will be quick to adjust my thought process if this team comes out and plays Florida State close. It really comes down to whether or not their defense is able to hold up and not suffer a serious decline, as there’s little doubt the offense will continue to put up points. If it’s better than expected, Oklahoma State could actually end up showing a lot of value because of how low expectations are coming into 2014.

2014 Projections
Big 12
Big 12 Record
Overall Record
Win Total Prediction
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