Oregon at Oregon State Spread
Posted by Jimmy Boyd - Google+
The 15th-ranked Oregon State Beavers (8-2) host the fifth-ranked Oregon Ducks (10-1) Saturday at 3:00 PM ET in Pac-12 North division action. Oddsmakers have listed Oregon as a 9.5-point favorite and have set the total at 64.5.
Why Oregon Covers
The Ducks suffered their first loss of the season last week. They were shocked at home with a 17-14 overtime loss to Stanford in a game they were favored by 18.5 points in. That loss actually sets up a positive situation for them this week as they are on a 19-6 against the spread run in games following a home loss. They have won by an average of 10.1 points in this situation.
The road has been kind to Oregon lately. It is 7-0 straight up and against the spread in true road games the last two seasons. It has won this season’s three road contests by an average of 25.0 points. Each of these seven wins have come by 11 points or more.
Much of Oregon State’s success has stemmed from winning the turnover battle. However, it will have a tough time winning that battle against Oregon. The Ducks have had fewer turnovers than their opponent in each of their last six games. This run is significant because they are on a 10-0 against the spread run in road games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of plus-one or better. They have won these games by an average score of 46.6 to 24.0.
Since Chip Kelly took over as head man, Oregon has been a strong investment against elite competition. In fact, it is 12-4 against the spread versus teams carrying a winning percentage better than 75.0 percent under his watch. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 39.5 to 22.8.
This series has been all Ducks lately. Oregon has won four in a row by an average of 19.0 points. Its last two wins in the series have come by 17 and 28 points, respectively.
It is also worth noting that the road team is 5-0-1 against the spread in the last six meetings.
Why Oregon State Covers
The Beavers have been a terrific investment this season. They are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in all games, and both of their losses came on the road and by four points or fewer.
Oregon State has been at its best at home where it is a perfect 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread. Its five home wins have come by an average of 17.6 points.
The Oregon State defense has been terrific this season, especially at home where it is only allowing 12.0 points per game.
The Beavers are the superior defensive team in this matchup as they rank 21st in scoring defense with 18.6 points allowed per game while Oregon ranks 27th with 21.8 points allowed per game. The Beavers rank 26th in total defense with 345.1 yards allowed per game while the Ducks rank 49th with 380.6 yards allowed per contest.
It is significant that Oregon State is coming off a 62-14 home win against Cal because it is on a 13-4 against the spread run in home games following a home win. It has won in this situation by an average score of 31.0 to 20.2.
The underdog is 4-1-1 against the spread in the last six meetings.
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