The Oregon State Beavers have a 6-5 overall record and a 4-4 record in Pac-12 play. After opening the season with a three point loss to Eastern Washington the Beavers went on a six game win streak. They have lost four consecutive games coming into this weeks matchup with the Oregon Ducks. Those four games have come against some of the best teams in the conference. They lost to then ranked No. 6 Stanford, USC, No. 19 ranked Arizona State and a loss to Washington last week.
The Oregon Ducks National Title dreams are not shattered after losing two of their last three games. Their loss to Stanford was a respectable one. It was a six-point loss on the road against one of the best teams in the conference. Last week the Ducks were embarrassed in their road game against Arizona in a 42-16 blowout win for the Wildcats. This week the Ducks will play host to the Beavers, a place where they have a perfect 6-0 record.
Kick-off takes place Friday at 7:00 PM ET with television coverage being provided by FOX Sports 1. The Ducks are expected to dominate this game at home. They find themselves listed as 21-point home favorites over the Beavers.
Why Oregon State Covers
The Beavers should have no problem keeping pace with the Ducks high powered offense. Oregon State is averaging 40.6 points per game on the road this season. They are not a very strong running team, but when your quarterback is completing 68.4 percent of his pass attempts and the team averages 424 passing yards per game it kind of negates the purpose of the running game. The Beavers offense is averaging a total of 485 yards per game on the road this year which makes them a very dangerous opponent for the Ducks this week.
The Oregon State Beavers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Defensively the Beavers have held opponents to 29.8 points per game on the road. That is slightly lower than their opponents offensive scoring average, which is a good indication that Oregon State’s defense may be underrated by the oddsmakers this week. Their running defense has been extremely effective in those road games, allowing opponents to rush for a mere 136 yards per game on four yards per carry. The secondary has also played well, allowing just 230 passing yards per game. When playing on the road the Beavers have given up a mere 6.4 yards per pass attempts.
Why Oregon Covers
Oregon has one of the best offensive attacks in the country, and when playing at home they have been exceptionally good. The Ducks are scoring 54.7 points per game at home, gaining 305 rushing yards and 286 passing yards. They have faced some very strong run defenses this season, yet they have still managed to gain 6.9 yards per carry at home. Even if the Beavers are able to stop Oregon’s running game, the Ducks have been extremely effective when throwing the ball. They are completing 65.9 percent of their pass attempts at home, and the offense averages a total of 591 yards per game.
The Oregon Ducks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
The Ducks biggest advantage in this game is their outstanding defense. They have held opponents to a mere 17.7 points per game at home this season. That is a very impressive feat considering their opponents have averaged over 28 points per game on offense. The run defense gives up just 3.2 yards per carry, and the secondary has allowed a 55.6 percent completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Their 5.3 yards per pass attempt is substantially better than the Beaver’s defense. Since this is a rivalry game the fan base should be a little more fired up than normal. That should cause major problems for the Beaver’s offense.
After last weeks surprise loss, I think the Ducks put on a show this week and dominate the Beavers in a shootout. Oregon is a much better team, and a three touchdown line seems very modest given the talent gap between these teams. Lay the points with the home team because this game will be won in a blowout.
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