Packers Bears Odds
The Green Bay Packers will try to improve to 6-2 on the season when they play host to their NFC North rivals, the Chicago Bears. Chicago comes into this game with a 4-3 overall record, and a win in this game would create a three way tie between the Packers, Lions and Bears for first plays in the division. The Bears opened the season winning three consecutive games, but they have since lost three of their last four games. Their only win during that four game stretch came over the now 2-6 New York Giants. The Packers opened the season losing two of their first three games, but since their bye week they have won four straight. One of those four victories came against their other division rival, the Detroit Lions.
Kick-off takes place on Monday at 8:30 PM ET with television coverage being provided by ESPN. The oddsmakers expect the Packers to dominate this game in front of their home crowd. Green Bay is currently listed as a 12-point favorite and the total has been set at 50-points.
Why Green Bay Covers
The Packers offense is rolling this season, averaging 30.3 points per game. They should have no problem matching, or even exceeding that number this week against a Chicago Bears team that has allowed 36 points per game on the road this season. The Bear’s defense has been soft against both the run and pass. That bodes well for Green Bay this week. The Packers are gaining 141 rushing yards per game this season on 4.8 yards per carry. They are also throwing for just shy of 300 yards per game on a 67.1% completion rate. When playing at home their numbers on the ground are nearly identical, but they improve to a 73.1% completion percentage and 321 passing yards per game in front of their home crowd.
The Green Bay Packers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games against a team with a winning record.
The biggest difference maker in this game is the Packer’s defense. They have held opponents to 22.6 points per game, but their opponents scoring average drops to just 14 points per game when Green Bay is playing at home. That gives them a very statistically significant edge over the Bears in this game. The Bears have had the luxury of facing some very soft defensive opponents this season. The only comparable defense to the Packers they have faced was in a game against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints held the Beats to just 18 points per game on their home field. With Chicago on the road this week, the Packers should have a very big advantage in this game.
Why Chicago Covers
The Chicago Bears are scoring a lot of points this year. They are averaging 30.4 points per game, but have actually performed even better when playing on the road. They have averaged 37.7 points per game away from home and they hope to continue that success this week against Green Bay. The Bears ground attack has been phenomenal even though Chicago has favored the pass this season. Chicago has amassed an average of 126 rushing yards per game on 5.7 yards per carry. A big reason for the Bears success has been the outstanding play from Matt Forte. This is one of the first seasons Forte has been able to remain healthy and it is paying dividends to Chicago’s offense. The Bears will have to rely on Josh McCown to lead the offense this week. McCown has seen a limited number of snaps this year, but he has completed 70% of his attempts and thrown one touchdown with no interceptions.
The Chicago Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Bear’s defense has not looked good this year, but that has not stopped them from winning games. Chicago knows their best chance to win this game is to force the Packers into a shootout. The Bears may be playing with their back-up quarterback, but that could actually play out to their advantage. Green Bay has will not have a lot of game tape on McCown so preparing for his style of play may prove difficult. As bad as the Bears have played on defense, there are some bright spots. The run defense has been solid, allowing 118 rushing yards per game. The Packers rely on Eddie Lacy’s ability to run the ball in order to open up deep passing plays. If Chicago can shut Lacy down they should easily keep this game within the 12-points they are being spotted.
This is simply too many points for a Monday Night Football matchup featuring a very high powered Bears offense. I fully expect Green Bay to win this game at home, but Chicago should easily score enough points to avoid losing by a double-digit margin. Take the points with the road team, and pair it with the over because this game is going to be a shootout.