Packers Bears Odds
The Chicago Bears (8-5) host the Green Bay Packers (9-4) Sunday at 1:00 PM ET in a key NFC North division showdown. Oddsmakers have listed the Packers as a three-point favorite and have set the total at 42.0.
Why Green Bay Covers
With Sunday’s 27-20 home win over the Detroit Lions, and with the Chicago Bears losing 21-14 on the road to the Minnesota Vikings the same day, the Packers took over sole possession of first place in the NFC North division. Now they can win the division with a victory against the Bears.
Green Bay has cleaned up against NFC North division foes this season. It is a perfect 4-0 straight up against the spread in division contests, winning them by an average of 8.2 points. One of these wins was a 23-10 victory at home against the Bears Sept. 13.
Chicago hasn’t been as dominant in division play. It is just 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread versus NFC North foes this season.
To say the Packers have had the upper hand in the series lately is an understatement. Green Bay has won 30 of the last 42 meetings and is 26-15-1 against the spread in these games. It is 16-5 straight up and 15-6 against the spread in games played in the Windy City during this stretch. It is also worth noting that the Packers have won each of the past five meetings with all of these wins coming by at least seven points. They have covered the number in each of the past four.
Green Bay enters this game with a lot more momentum. It has won seven of its last eight games while the Bears have dropped four of their last five.
The Packers are 6-2 against the spread over their last eight games while the Bears are 2-6 against the number in their last eight.
Why Chicago Covers
The Bears need this game if they’re going to win the division. Fortunately for them, they get it at home where they have won five of seven games this season.
Chicago has been in every home game. Its losses have come by narrow margins to the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks. The Bears lost to the Texans by just seven points despite losing Jay Cutler to injury in the game. They lost to the Seahawks in overtime. Chicago’s five home wins have come by an average of 12.4 points.
While the Bears have been at their best at home, the Packers have been somewhat vulnerable on the road where they are just 3-3. Green Bay was blown out 38-10 by the New York Giants in its last road game and struggled in a 24-20 win over the Lions in the road game before that.
Quarterback Jay Cutler left last week’s game against the Vikings with stiffness in his neck but is expected to be ready to play by Sunday. That’s good news for the Bears, who are 8-2 this season in games Cutler starts and finishes.
The Packers haven’t been as explosive on offense this season as they got off to a slow start and now injuries have taken their toll. They won’t get anything easy against a Chicago stop unit that ranks third in the NFL in scoring defense with 16.8 points allowed per game and fifth in total defense with 314.2 yards allowed per game.