Patriots Jets Odds
The New York Jets (4-6) host the New England Patriots (7-3) Thursday night in the NFL’s Thanksgiving finale. Oddsmakers have listed the Patriots as a 5.5-point favorite and have set the total at 49.0.
Why New England Covers
Since losing two of their first three, the Patriots have won six of seven, including each of their last four. Their last six victories have come by an average of 19.3 points.
New England has been an outstanding investment on the road. It has covered the spread in 14 of its last 19 games that have been played away from home and have won these by an average score of 32.6 to 22.0. Its road success goes back even further.
The Patriots are a dominant 65-37 against the spread on the road under coach Bill Belichick. They are on a 52-33 against the spread run in road games in the second half of the season over the last two decades and a 44-23 against the spread run in road games versus division opponents during the same time frame.
In addition, New England is 35-21 against the spread as a road favorite under Belichick, including 19-9 against the number as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points. It is an incredible 54-36 against the spread in all games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Belichick.
The Jets are one of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of defending the run. They currently rank 30th in the league against the run with 141.7 yards allowed per game. New England’s fifth-ranked rushing attack, which averages 142.9 yards per game, should be able to take advantage. Consider that the Pats are on a 19-8 against the spread run in road games versus teams that give up 130.0 rushing yards or more per game. They have won these contests by an average score of 27.8 to 17.3.
New England has won each of the past three meetings in the series with two of the wins coming by nine and 21 points.
Why New York Covers
The Jets enter with some much-needed momentum following a 27-13 road win against the St. Louis Rams. They have now quietly covered the spread in four of their last six games. One of these covers was a 29-26 overtime loss at New England as an 11.0-point underdog.
New England’s Rob Gronkowski hurt the Jets in that game as he hauled in six passes for 78 yards and two touchdowns. Fortunately for the Jets, they won’t have to deal with him this time around. Gronkowski is expected to be out four-to-six weeks after breaking a bone in his forearm in Sunday’s win over the Indianapolis Colts.
Aaron Hernandez is listed as probable but has been limited in practice because of an ankle injury. He has only played in four games this season and likely won’t be at his best if he is able to go.
The tight end position is such a big part of the New England offense. With Gronkowski out and Hernandez not at one hundred percent, the New England offense could struggle.
The Patriots are one of the weaker defensive teams in the league. They rank 28th in total defense with 389.0 yards allowed per game. The Jets racked up 403 yards of offense against them in the season’s first meeting.