This Saturday the Washington Redskins (3-11, 4-10 ATS) will host the Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, 8-6 ATS). Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 EST at FedEx Field and will be televised on the NFL Network. Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as a 8.5-point road favorite with the total set at 50.5 points.
Philadelphia comes into this contest off a 27-38 home loss to the Cowboys, which followed a 14-24 home defeat to the Seahawks in Week 15. The Eagles have went from being in the drivers seat of the NFC East to needing to win out and hope that Dallas loses one of their final two games against the Colts and Redskins. Philadelphia held on to beat the Redskins 37-34 at home back in Week 3, but could have an easier time with Washington having lost 6 straight.
Early Lean on Redskins +8.5
As difficult as it may be to back Washington given their recent play, I think we are getting some nice value here with the Redskins catching 8.5-points at home. The key here is that this is a game Washington is going to be motivated for. The Redskins have lost 3 straight to the Eagles and would love nothing more than to play a part in keeping Philadelphia out of the postseason.
While the Redskins have lost some key players to injury, you have to like the way they played against the Eagles in that earlier matchup in Philadelphia. Washington outgained the Eagles 511 to 379 (+132) in total yards. They averaged an impressive 6.7 yards/play and held LeSean McCoy and Philadelphia’s ground game to just 54 yards on 25 attempts (2.2 ypc). While they did give up 325 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air, that was back when Nick Foles was the starter. Mark Sanchez has played well in Foles absence, but he’s also thrown 9 interceptions in 7 games.
Teams who are revenging a loss to an opponent where they gave up 28 or more points are 36-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when they come in having won 25% or fewer of their games and their opponent has a winning record.
Another aspect that I like here with Washington is that RGIII will be getting the start. Griffin replaced Colt McCoy last week and completed 18 of 27 attempts for 236 yards with 1 touchdown and no interceptions. He also rushed for a season-high 46 yards on 5 attempts. RGII is auditioning not only to remain the starter in Washington, but for any team that is looking to add a quarterback in the offseason. I look for Griffin to have a lot of success here against an Eagles defense that ranks 28th against the pass (257.4 ypg) and 18th versus the run (113.9 ypg).
It’s also worth noting that Philadelphia has not responded well to a bad loss at home. The Eagles are 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons off a home defeat by 10 or more points and have lost these contests by an average score of 15.5 to 31.8. Philadelphia is also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games in the second half of the season against teams who are being outscored by 6+ points/game.
Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Redskins. Teams who are revenging a loss to an opponent where they gave up 28 or more points are 36-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when they come in having won 25% or fewer of their games and their opponent has a winning record.