Saints Raiders Odds
The Oakland Raiders (3-6) host the New Orleans Saints (4-5) Sunday afternoon in a non-conference clash. Oddsmakers have listed the Saints as a 4.5-point favorite and have set the total at 54.5.
Why New Orleans Covers
The Saints have rebounded from a 0-4 start and have won four of their last five games, including a big win over the then-undefeated Atlanta Falcons last week. If recent history is any indication, the Saints won’t be slowing down any time soon.
New Orleans is a perfect 10-0 against the spread in games in the second half of the season dating back to last season and has won these by an average score of 34.6 to 19.0.
The Saints are one of the top offensive teams in the league. They rank fourth in total offense with 392.3 yards per game and sixth in scoring with 27.7 points per game. They have done most of their damage through the air.
New Orleans ranks second in the league with 303.9 passing yards per contest. Drew Brees and company could cause major problems for an Oakland defense that ranks 24th in the league against the pass with 255.9 yards allowed per game. Consider that the Saints are on a 9-1 against the spread run versus teams that give up 235.0 passing yards or more per game. They have won by an average score of 38.2 to 21.3 in these contests.
It is also significant that the Raiders give up 374.9 yards per game. That’s because New Orleans is on a 9-2 against the spread run against teams that allow 350.0 yards or more per contest. It has won by an average score of 36.3 to 21.9 in these games.
The Saints are giving up 28.4 points per game this season, but the Raiders are just 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 home games versus teams that allow 27.0 points or more per game.
Why Oakland Covers
The Saints are not the same team on the road where they are just 1-3 on the season. The Raiders, on the other hand, have been at their best at home where they are 2-2 and have a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Oakland was embarrassed with a 55-20 road loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week, but it is on a 17-7-1 against the spread run following a game in which it failed to cover the spread. It is also worth noting that it is 18-8-1 against the spread in its last 27 games after giving up more than 30 points in their previous game.
New Orleans is the worst defensive team in the NFL. It ranks dead last in total defense with 469.3 yards allowed per game. It has been torched through the air, ranking 31st against the pass with 307.3 yards allowed per game.
Oakland’s fifth-ranked passing attack, which averages 288.9 yards per game, should be able to move the football through the air easily.
It is significant that the Saints are giving up an average of 28.4 points per game and have given up at least 28 points five times this season. Consider that they are 18-83 against the spread when they allow 28 or more points the last two decades. The Raiders are 57-10 against the number when they score 28 or more points during the same span.
Turnovers, more than anything, have hurt the Raiders recently. Fortunately for them, New Orleans hasn’t been all that opportunistic. The Saints have only come up with four turnovers in their last four games.