Rams Seahawks Odds
The St Louis Rams (3-4) will host the Seattle Seahawks (6-1) on Monday Night Football. These two NFC West rivals split their season series a year ago, with the home team winning both games. St Louis did cover the spread in both matchups. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 EST at the Edward Jones Dome and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Oddsmakers have installed the Seahawks as 10.5-point road favorites with the total set at 42.5 points.
Why Seattle Will Cover:
Seattle hasn’t exactly dominated teams early on like they did at the end of last season, which caused a lot of people to take the points with Arizona last week on Thursday Night Football. Seattle came out and looked like a completely different team than the one that slopped their way to a victory the previous week against Tennessee at home. It’s almost as if this team decided to turn up the intensity for the primetime matchup. It’s definitely worth noting that the Seahawks arguably two best performances have come in a nationally televised matchup. The other was a 29-3 home win over the 49ers on Sunday Night Football back in Week 2. Hard to not like Seattle even with a double-digit spread in the spotlight of Monday Night Football.
The Rams created some hope that they were going to turn their season around with a 38-13 road win over the Texans, but they quickly returned to their early season form with a 15-30 loss at Carolina. Making matters even worse, starting quarterback Sam Bradford was lost for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. With no running game to fall back on, it will be up to veteran backup Kellen Clemens to keep this game respectable. With Seattle coming into this game with the 2nd ranked pass defense (190.6 ypg), it doesn’t figure to go well for Clemens.
The loss of Bradford might lead some to think the Seahawks will overlook the Rams and cause this game to be close than you would expect. With San Francisco breathing down their neck and this being a division game, I have a hard time believing that to be the case. Seattle desperately wants home field in the playoffs and that all starts by winning the NFC West.
There’s a solid system favoring Seahawks to cover. Favorites who are off a win against a division rival are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS when playing on Monday Night Football since 1983.
Favorites who are off a win against a division rival are 55-22 (71.4%) ATS when playing on Monday Night Football since 1983.
The Seahawks not only figure to keep the Rams offense in check, but you have to like the matchup on the other side of the ball as well. It’s no secret that Seattle loves to pound the rock with Marshawn Lynch, who is second in the league with 578 rushing yards. St Louis has the 30th ranked run defense in the league, giving up 126.4 ypg. The Rams also allowed Carolina’s Cam Newton to complete 15 of 17 attempts for 204 yards, which makes it hard to believe they will be able to slow down Russell Wilson.
Why St Louis Will Cover:
With Bradford suffering a season ending injury and the Rams sitting at 3-4 overall, I think it’s pretty safe to say this team understands their hopes of making the playoffs are gone. While it could have an effect on their performance down the road, I expect this team to lay everything on the line against Seattle on Monday Night Football.
There’s a system in play telling us to fade the Seahawks. Favorites of 10.5 or more points who are outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 12-36 (25%) ATS since 1983.
Favorites of 10.5 or more points who are outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are just 12-36 (25%) ATS since 1983.
One of the positives for St Louis is that while Clemens has never been a consistent starter in this league, he’s got quite a bit of experience to fall back. He’s played in 31 games over his seven years in the NFL, including 13 starts. He’s not going to wow you with his numbers, but he’s athletic enough to scramble and make plays when things don’t go as planned.
The St Louis defense hasn’t been great, but what they have done well is get after the quarterback. The Rams have a respectable 18 sacks on the season, which is a pretty solid number given how much they have been playing from behind. Arizona was able to sack Wilson three times last week and twice forced him to fumble the football. Turnovers by the Seahawks would definitely increase the Rams chances of covering this spread.
Even though the Seahawks were able to come away with a 12-point win last week against the Cardinals, you can’t ignore the fact that as a whole this team has not played their best football on the road. Seattle’s other two road wins came by 5-points at Carolina and 3-points in overtime vs the Texans. They also lost at Indianapolis.
Early Lean – Seahawks -10.5