This Saturday the Vanderbilt Commodores will host the No. 14 South Carolina Gamecocks in a SEC East clash. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 EST at Vanderbilt Stadium and will be televised on the SEC Network. Oddsmakers currently have the Gamecocks listed as a 21.5-point road favorite with the total set at 55.5 points.
Georgia comes in off an impressive 38-35 home win over then No. 6 Georgia as a 6.5-point underdog. The Gamecocks have really responded well after that embarrassing 28-52 loss to Texas A&M in the opener, as they have now won two straight over quality opponents.
Vanderbilt on the other hand was able to get their first win of the season with a 34-31 win over UMass at home, but failed to cover the 16.5-point spread. The Commodores are just 1-2 overall and 0-3 ATS in 2014.
Early Lean on South Carolina -21.5
I know this is a difficult spot for the Gamecocks off that huge win over the Bulldogs, but this is one of the worst Vanderbilt teams I have seen in a while. The Commodores got destroyed at home by both Temple (7-37) and Ole Miss (3-41) before rallying to beat a bad UMass team this past week.
I believe a less than 100% motivated South Carolina team is more than capable of winning here by more than 3 touchdowns. The Gamecocks really can’t afford to overlook any opponent in the SEC and I think they got a good reminder of that in the opener against Texas A&M. Steve Spurrier will do everything in his power to keep his team focused. There’s still a lot of things they need to improve on and this is a good opportunity to work some of those kinks out against a bad team.
Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points after going over the total by 21 or more points in their last 3 games are 60-27 (69%) ATS in conference games over the last 10 years.
South Carolina has one of the better offensive lines in the country and should be able to run the ball at will against a Vanderbilt defense that has to be both defeated and exhausted. The Commodores offense has left them on the field a lot this season, as they simply can’t get anything going. Vanderbilt ranks 120th out 125 teams in total offense, averaging just 251.7 yards/game. They hadn’t even scored an offensive touchdown until going up against a worthless UMass defense. I don’t see Vanderbilt scoring more than 10 points in this one and I’ll take my chances on South Carolina putting up at least 34.
Road favorites of 14.5 or more points after a game where they had a -2 or worse turnover margin are 41-15 (73%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. We also see that favorites of 21.5 to 31 points after going over the total by 21 or more points in their last 3 games are 60-27 (69%) ATS in conference games over the last 10 years.