South Carolina Vanderbilt Odds
Posted by Jimmy Boyd
The South Carolina Gamecocks will host the Vanderbilt Commodores this Saturday in a crucial SEC matchup for both teams. Both teams come in at 1-1 overall, but are 0-1 inside the conference. Last year these two schools faced off in Vanderbilt on opening night. The Gamecocks won 17-13 in a defensive battle, but failed to cover the 6-point spread. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 EST at Williams-Brice Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Oddsmakers currently have South Carolina listed as 13.5-point home favorites with the total set at 50.5 points.
Why Vanderbilt Will Cover:
The Commodores will be playing with revenge on their mind in this game. Vanderbilt had a 13-10 lead going into the 4th quarter of last year’s matchup and had to feel like that was a game they should have won. South Carolina on the other hand could find it difficult to rebound from a crucial loss to Georgia this past weekend. The Gamecocks now need the Bulldogs to lose twice in conference play in order to have any shot at playing in the SEC Championship Game.
It’s pretty amazing what James Franklin has done with the Vanderbilt program. He’s one of the more underrated coaches in the entire country. While the Commodores have failed to cover the spread in each of their first two games, they are still 18-10 ATS under Franklin. Not only are they capable of covering a double-digit spread, but there’s an outside shot they win this game straight up. The Commodores are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Vanderbilt is 18-10 ATS under third year head coach James Franklin.
The South Carolina defense just allowed 536 yards of total offense to Georgia. While the Commodores aren’t as explosive offensively as the Bulldogs, that gives me reason to think Vanderbilt will be able to hold their own offensively. Let’s not forget the Gamecocks held Georgia to just 7 points and 224 yards of total offense in 2012.
The biggest thing that could be pointing to a Vanderbilt cover is the fact that Jadeveon Clowney is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Not having him would be a huge loss for the Commodores. On top of that, starting center Cody Waldrop is questionable with a foot injury and starting free safety Kadetrix Marcus is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Why South Carolina Will Cover:
The Gamecocks loss to Georgia certainly stings, but you have to believe head coach Steve Spurrier will make sure his troops are focused on the task at hand. The fact that South Carolina is coming off a big loss and the Commodores played them close last year could have this spread set a little to low. The Gamecocks are a different beast on their home field, where they have lost just three times in the last four seasons.
Backing South Carolina off a loss is usually a wise move. The Gamecocks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss and an even better 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a game where they failed to cover the spread. South Carolina is also 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
There’s also a big time system backing South Carolina in this matchup. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points, who won over 80% of their games the previous year and closed out with 4 or more wins in their last 5 games are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS in the first month of the season over the last 10 years.
Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points, who won over 80% of their games the previous year and closed out with 4 or more wins in their last 5 games are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS in the first month of the season over the last 10 years.
The South Carolina defense is going to be a pissed off bunch after last week’s debacle against the Bulldogs. It can be easy to forget that the Gamecocks held UNC to just 293 total yards the previous week at home. In my opinion, Vanderbilt’s offense is pretty comparable to that of the Tar Heels.
Defensively the Commodores didn’t look good at all in that opening week loss to Ole Miss. They allowed 489 yards of total offense, giving up 200+ both on the ground and through the air. The Gamecocks offense is averaging 227 ypg running the football and senior quarterback Connor Shaw is more than capable of picking apart Vanderbilt’s secondary. The Commodores could also be playing without starting middle linebacker Chase Garnham, who is questionable with a leg injury.
Early Lean – Vanderbilt +13.5