Stanford at Oregon Spread
The 2nd-ranked Oregon Ducks (10-0) host the 13th-ranked Stanford Cardinal (8-2) Saturday night in Pac-12 North action. Oddsmakers have listed Oregon as a 21.0-point favorite and have set the total at 66.0.
Why Oregon Covers
The Ducks are dominating. Their 10 wins have come by an average of 32.5 points, and eight of these wins have come by at least 22 points. Their six home wins have come by an average of 37.5 points. They have really picked up their play over the last month or so and are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games as a result.
Oregon is the most explosive offensive team in the country. It leads the entire nation in scoring with 54.8 points per game and ranks third in total offense with 562.6 yards per game. It does most of its damage on the ground where it ranks third in the land with 325.1 yards per game. The Stanford offense pales in comparison.
The Cardinal rank 63rd in scoring with 29.1 points per game and 84th in total offense with 377.8 yards per game.
The Ducks have risen to the occasion time and time again versus top competition. They are on an 8-1 against the spread run versus teams that have a winning record. They are also 6-0 against the spread dating back to last season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 10.0 points or more per game. They have won these six games by an average of 22.0 points.
Oregon has won each of the past two meetings in the series by 21 and 23 points, respectively. It has won nine of the past 10 meetings, and seven of these wins have come by at least 21 points.
Why Stanford Covers
Stanford has been an excellent investment for quite some time now. It is 36-16-1 against the spread in its last 53 games and 16-6 against the spread since the beginning of last season. It is 16-5-1 against the number in its last 22 road games and 15-5-1 against the spread in its last 21 conference contests.
The Cardinal don’t have the same explosive offense they had with Andrew Luck at the controls, but they have remained elite because of their ferocious defense. They rank 12th in the country in scoring defense with 17.2 points allowed per game and 17th in total defense with 320.7 yards allowed per game. Oregon, on the other hand, ranks 32nd in scoring defense with 22.3 points allowed per game and 48th in total defense with 377.6 yards allowed per game.
If any team can slow down Oregon’s explosive running attack it’s Stanford. The Cardinal rank No. 1 in the nation against the run with 58.9 yards allowed per game. They are going to make the Ducks beat them through the air. Keep in mind Oregon is just 2-4 against the spread this season when it attempts 27 passes or more in a game.
Stanford is on a 20-8 against the spread run in road games versus teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 10.0 points per game or more. It is also on a 12-3 against the spread run in road games versus excellent offensive teams that average 450.0 yards or more per game.